* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLOSSIE EP072019 08/03/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 48 45 43 41 37 31 25 22 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 50 48 45 43 41 37 31 25 22 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 47 45 42 40 35 30 26 23 21 18 18 18 18 17 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 24 24 16 17 24 28 34 39 38 35 29 17 17 17 22 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -4 3 6 5 0 1 0 3 -1 -1 -2 -2 -2 -1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 306 317 299 252 255 270 267 254 233 235 224 271 304 319 305 N/A N/A SST (C) 26.3 26.5 26.6 26.4 26.3 26.2 26.4 26.5 26.8 26.3 26.3 25.7 25.2 24.5 23.0 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 128 130 131 128 127 126 128 129 132 127 127 121 116 108 92 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.2 -52.3 -52.1 -52.2 -52.5 -53.2 -53.9 -54.2 -54.9 -55.4 -56.1 -56.2 -56.7 -56.6 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.3 -0.1 -0.6 -0.6 -0.4 -0.3 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 59 58 59 60 62 57 61 67 70 71 66 66 71 73 62 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 15 15 14 12 10 8 9 9 7 8 8 7 6 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -25 -34 -26 -19 -23 -36 -34 -47 -34 -31 -40 -55 -55 -23 17 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 8 -5 15 25 6 4 26 25 53 0 23 18 9 21 13 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -11 -10 -1 6 6 7 7 14 11 14 9 4 4 7 15 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1374 1233 1093 965 837 596 383 281 323 468 671 941 1195 1442 1683 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.2 18.5 18.8 19.1 19.4 19.8 20.6 21.8 23.5 25.3 27.4 29.9 32.1 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 141.8 143.1 144.4 145.6 146.8 149.1 151.3 153.3 154.8 155.6 155.8 155.4 154.6 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 12 12 12 11 11 11 10 10 11 12 12 11 11 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 2 5 2 2 1 3 2 5 1 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 742 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 4. 2. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -12. -19. -25. -30. -31. -31. -31. -33. -36. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -3. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -7. -11. -11. -12. -15. -13. -11. -11. -12. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -7. -9. -13. -19. -25. -28. -32. -37. -35. -34. -38. -43. -47. -48. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 18.2 141.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072019 FLOSSIE 08/03/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.8 30.0 to 135.0 0.46 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.25 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.1 17.2 to 1.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.8 -30.0 to 145.0 0.23 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 275.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.57 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.76 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.4 34.4 to 2.3 0.56 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.4 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 56.6 to 0.0 0.95 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.0 to -2.0 0.12 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 9.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072019 FLOSSIE 08/03/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##