* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLOSSIE EP072019 08/02/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 53 51 49 48 44 36 30 23 22 21 25 26 24 17 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 53 51 49 48 44 36 30 23 22 21 25 26 24 17 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 53 50 48 46 41 35 30 26 23 21 20 21 21 20 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 18 22 19 13 23 35 40 42 37 35 23 19 21 27 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 0 -1 5 6 0 -3 3 1 -1 -1 4 4 1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 310 290 305 314 286 252 280 271 254 237 245 247 276 275 267 N/A N/A SST (C) 26.8 26.2 26.2 26.3 26.5 26.0 25.9 26.4 26.7 26.8 26.3 26.1 25.6 25.1 24.6 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 134 127 127 128 130 124 123 128 131 132 127 125 120 115 109 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.9 -51.9 -52.1 -52.3 -52.2 -52.6 -53.4 -53.8 -54.5 -55.2 -55.4 -55.9 -55.9 -56.2 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 -0.2 -0.4 -0.4 -0.6 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 4 4 3 4 3 3 2 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 59 61 62 62 60 62 60 64 70 72 66 61 63 64 64 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 19 17 16 16 16 12 11 9 11 12 14 14 14 12 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -29 -28 -25 -29 -21 -20 -28 -44 -43 -25 -19 -22 -12 -9 7 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -2 -21 -10 -1 13 22 -9 48 33 59 27 34 25 20 10 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -3 -14 -11 0 5 8 5 17 20 24 8 7 8 10 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1704 1545 1387 1247 1106 849 616 393 296 343 506 726 959 1201 1448 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.3 17.7 18.0 18.3 18.6 19.2 19.7 20.6 21.9 23.7 25.7 27.9 30.0 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 138.8 140.3 141.7 143.0 144.3 146.7 148.9 151.2 153.2 154.8 155.6 155.7 155.2 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 13 13 12 11 11 12 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 4 0 0 1 7 0 0 2 3 6 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 727 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -4. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -10. -16. -22. -27. -29. -30. -30. -33. -36. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -7. -11. -15. -13. -12. -8. -8. -6. -8. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -6. -7. -11. -19. -25. -32. -33. -34. -30. -29. -31. -38. -43. -46. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 17.3 138.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072019 FLOSSIE 08/02/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.0 30.0 to 135.0 0.42 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.25 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.8 17.2 to 1.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.2 -30.0 to 145.0 0.15 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 294.6 742.0 to -74.0 0.55 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.92 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.7 34.4 to 2.3 0.68 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.4 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.0 to -2.0 0.17 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 13.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 4.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072019 FLOSSIE 08/02/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##