* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLOSSIE EP072019 08/01/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 54 53 52 51 49 45 39 34 27 21 16 16 16 17 16 N/A V (KT) LAND 55 54 53 52 51 49 45 39 34 27 21 16 16 16 17 16 N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 54 53 52 51 47 42 37 32 27 22 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 19 13 11 11 15 17 20 29 30 37 36 24 28 21 17 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 1 2 1 2 2 4 1 0 5 4 2 5 0 -2 2 SHEAR DIR 352 345 343 316 297 284 289 273 271 275 265 261 246 219 243 278 291 SST (C) 27.7 27.2 26.8 27.1 27.0 26.5 26.4 26.6 26.0 26.1 26.5 26.9 26.9 26.3 25.8 25.2 24.2 POT. INT. (KT) 143 138 134 137 136 130 129 130 124 125 129 133 134 128 123 117 106 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.5 -52.2 -52.0 -52.3 -52.1 -52.4 -52.5 -52.8 -53.1 -53.6 -54.0 -54.6 -55.0 -55.8 -56.0 -55.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 4 3 4 4 4 4 4 5 4 4 5 4 4 700-500 MB RH 59 56 57 59 60 58 57 60 65 64 68 69 66 57 46 40 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 19 19 19 19 19 17 15 14 12 10 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -12 -16 -27 -13 -8 -7 -17 -17 -10 -33 -38 0 7 7 -8 -30 -33 200 MB DIV -2 -23 -22 2 7 59 12 6 -21 -4 23 55 101 51 21 23 3 700-850 TADV -10 -5 -6 -5 -3 -1 -7 -1 4 2 4 15 21 24 6 7 -4 LAND (KM) 2182 2276 2255 2089 1922 1606 1310 1040 780 534 311 222 309 545 844 1153 1470 LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.3 15.6 16.0 16.4 17.0 17.7 18.2 18.8 19.3 20.2 21.5 23.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 130.9 132.4 133.9 135.4 136.9 139.8 142.5 145.0 147.4 149.7 151.9 153.8 155.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 15 15 15 14 13 12 11 11 11 11 12 14 14 14 15 HEAT CONTENT 16 9 11 25 20 2 1 9 0 0 3 5 9 1 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 661 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -14. -17. -19. -21. -23. -24. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. -1. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -2. -5. -8. -11. -14. -17. -16. -14. -13. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -10. -16. -21. -28. -34. -39. -39. -39. -38. -39. -43. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 14.9 130.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072019 FLOSSIE 08/01/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.3 30.0 to 135.0 0.50 4.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 2.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.2 17.2 to 1.6 0.19 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -7.6 -30.0 to 145.0 0.13 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 300.4 742.0 to -74.0 0.54 -3.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.92 5.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.4 34.4 to 2.3 0.53 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.2 3.0 to 94.0 0.15 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.0 to -2.0 0.17 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.6% 20.3% 15.3% 11.0% 9.2% 13.1% 8.9% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 2.6% 0.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.0% 7.6% 5.3% 3.8% 3.1% 4.4% 3.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072019 FLOSSIE 08/01/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##