* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLOSSIE EP072019 08/01/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 52 50 49 49 48 46 45 42 38 35 32 28 26 25 22 19 V (KT) LAND 55 52 50 49 49 48 46 45 42 38 35 32 28 26 25 22 19 V (KT) LGEM 55 52 49 48 47 45 42 39 36 33 29 26 22 19 17 15 N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 19 21 18 14 11 13 16 15 20 21 26 31 34 28 32 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 3 2 2 7 6 2 4 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 345 352 358 354 349 308 277 299 282 277 276 258 261 254 239 249 256 SST (C) 28.1 27.7 27.9 27.2 26.7 27.4 26.6 26.5 26.9 26.4 26.6 26.5 27.2 26.9 26.7 26.9 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 147 143 145 137 132 139 131 130 134 128 130 129 137 134 130 132 122 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 -52.4 -52.4 -52.1 -52.5 -52.3 -52.6 -52.8 -53.1 -53.7 -54.5 -54.4 -55.0 -55.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 4 3 3 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 63 63 63 58 59 62 61 62 62 66 64 69 68 68 59 53 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 20 19 19 20 19 19 19 17 16 15 14 11 9 8 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 16 15 -1 -7 -18 -9 -7 -9 -10 -6 -18 -22 -16 -18 -32 -50 -46 200 MB DIV 17 -3 -14 -28 -27 -16 30 12 -5 -8 -16 2 8 50 40 1 -2 700-850 TADV -16 -17 -10 -8 -7 -3 -3 -4 0 1 0 6 8 14 7 4 -1 LAND (KM) 2038 2116 2198 2282 2282 1988 1681 1391 1110 852 593 340 119 124 233 363 507 LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.4 14.7 15.1 15.4 15.9 16.5 16.9 17.4 17.8 18.3 19.0 20.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 128.1 129.5 130.9 132.3 133.7 136.4 139.2 141.9 144.5 146.9 149.3 151.6 153.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 14 14 13 14 13 13 12 12 12 12 12 12 9 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 19 15 16 6 7 30 5 2 10 3 3 3 10 7 15 6 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 655 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -11. -14. -16. -19. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -9. -10. -13. -17. -20. -23. -27. -29. -30. -33. -36. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 14.1 128.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072019 FLOSSIE 08/01/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.7 30.0 to 135.0 0.53 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.17 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.2 17.2 to 1.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -11.0 -30.0 to 145.0 0.11 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 268.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.58 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.92 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.5 34.4 to 2.3 0.65 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.6 3.0 to 94.0 0.11 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.1 56.6 to 0.0 0.95 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.0 to -2.0 0.18 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 13.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 9.3% 7.1% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 1.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 4.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 3.1% 2.4% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072019 FLOSSIE 08/01/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##