* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLOSSIE EP072019 07/31/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 56 54 52 50 50 50 51 49 46 42 40 38 34 32 24 22 V (KT) LAND 60 56 54 52 50 50 50 51 49 46 42 40 38 34 32 24 22 V (KT) LGEM 60 57 54 52 51 49 47 45 42 38 34 30 27 24 19 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 20 19 20 17 13 8 12 16 18 16 23 26 34 37 35 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 1 1 0 1 3 0 3 5 5 5 10 7 3 2 0 SHEAR DIR 337 343 348 352 350 327 297 276 288 290 278 276 261 250 250 261 276 SST (C) 28.2 28.1 27.7 27.7 27.3 27.0 26.9 26.4 26.7 26.8 26.2 26.7 26.9 27.2 26.9 26.7 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 148 147 142 142 138 135 134 129 132 133 126 131 133 136 133 131 132 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.3 -52.4 -52.6 -52.5 -52.4 -52.4 -52.3 -52.3 -52.3 -52.6 -52.7 -53.0 -53.4 -54.3 -54.7 -55.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 700-500 MB RH 64 62 63 61 56 57 57 59 56 60 61 62 65 68 66 59 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 21 22 22 21 23 22 23 23 21 20 19 18 15 14 7 5 850 MB ENV VOR 20 17 15 2 -8 -7 -2 8 -1 8 11 -4 -5 -17 -26 -44 -58 200 MB DIV 32 17 -5 -5 -11 -11 13 56 -16 -12 -10 -2 13 32 9 -6 -1 700-850 TADV -15 -17 -20 -13 -8 -5 3 -3 -3 3 6 3 4 6 9 3 -3 LAND (KM) 1935 2018 2086 2159 2239 2180 1886 1596 1296 1017 750 478 240 115 134 241 377 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 14.2 14.5 14.9 15.2 15.7 16.2 16.6 17.0 17.4 17.8 18.4 19.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 126.6 127.9 129.2 130.5 131.9 134.6 137.3 140.0 142.8 145.4 147.9 150.4 152.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 14 14 13 13 13 13 13 12 12 11 11 11 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 20 20 16 17 9 21 20 2 3 9 1 3 10 8 7 15 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 627 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. -10. -13. -17. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. -1. -3. -5. -5. -8. -8. -13. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -6. -8. -10. -10. -10. -9. -11. -14. -18. -20. -22. -26. -28. -36. -38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 13.8 126.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072019 FLOSSIE 07/31/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.5 30.0 to 135.0 0.51 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.17 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.4 17.2 to 1.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.6 -30.0 to 145.0 0.20 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 309.2 742.0 to -74.0 0.53 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.96 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.4 34.4 to 2.3 0.47 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.4 3.0 to 94.0 0.15 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 13.1 56.6 to 0.0 0.77 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.0 to -2.0 0.23 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 11.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072019 FLOSSIE 07/31/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##