* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERICK EP062019 07/31/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 110 106 100 93 85 68 52 41 33 30 29 25 25 23 22 23 24 V (KT) LAND 110 106 100 93 85 68 52 41 33 30 29 25 25 23 22 23 24 V (KT) LGEM 110 104 96 88 80 66 53 43 35 31 28 25 23 21 20 18 17 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 7 11 13 19 32 37 37 39 40 39 44 41 39 30 25 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 6 10 6 2 -1 -2 -3 0 0 0 4 3 0 2 1 SHEAR DIR 282 268 245 230 235 258 260 259 263 266 265 265 265 265 278 312 321 SST (C) 27.8 27.7 27.5 27.4 27.5 28.0 27.5 27.4 27.4 28.0 28.4 28.7 28.4 28.3 28.4 28.1 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 142 142 140 139 140 145 140 139 138 144 148 151 147 146 148 145 142 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.8 -52.9 -52.5 -52.6 -52.9 -52.9 -53.1 -53.1 -53.6 -53.6 -54.3 -54.2 -54.8 -55.0 -55.3 -55.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 -0.1 0.0 -0.4 -0.8 -0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 8 9 9 9 9 10 10 9 700-500 MB RH 56 54 52 53 55 54 55 52 55 55 56 53 51 50 47 40 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 21 20 19 17 14 13 11 8 8 9 7 8 7 7 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 10 2 -1 2 4 -7 0 -4 -2 2 12 7 15 18 12 -10 -24 200 MB DIV 51 31 30 26 23 15 35 45 27 35 51 39 33 -1 -25 -15 -33 700-850 TADV 6 13 12 9 6 9 9 6 5 7 3 4 0 2 0 1 1 LAND (KM) 1129 1012 897 779 666 462 297 301 453 436 476 561 644 740 863 1028 1197 LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.4 14.7 15.0 15.3 15.8 16.3 16.8 17.4 18.2 18.9 19.6 20.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 145.8 146.9 148.0 149.2 150.3 152.7 155.1 157.5 159.8 161.9 163.6 165.1 166.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 12 11 11 12 12 12 11 10 8 8 7 7 8 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 10 11 9 8 9 14 12 27 21 34 34 38 28 24 20 17 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 609 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -5. -10. -18. -25. -32. -37. -40. -42. -42. -42. -43. -45. -47. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -7. -13. -17. -19. -17. -17. -18. -22. -27. -31. -32. -28. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. -10. -8. -7. -6. -5. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -15. -21. -21. -20. -21. -18. -17. -16. -16. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -10. -17. -25. -42. -58. -69. -77. -80. -81. -85. -85. -87. -88. -87. -86. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 14.1 145.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062019 ERICK 07/31/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 30.4 30.0 to 135.0 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.25 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.7 17.2 to 1.6 0.35 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.2 -30.0 to 145.0 0.36 1.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 660.2 742.0 to -74.0 0.10 -0.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 110.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.16 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.1 34.4 to 2.3 0.82 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.4 3.0 to 94.0 0.07 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.0 to -2.0 0.27 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.6% 15.4% 8.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.2% 1.5% 0.9% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.9% 5.7% 3.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062019 ERICK 07/31/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##