* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLOSSIE EP072019 07/30/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 67 69 69 67 67 66 64 63 60 57 53 46 42 39 34 30 V (KT) LAND 65 67 69 69 67 67 66 64 63 60 57 53 46 42 39 34 30 V (KT) LGEM 65 68 70 69 68 66 65 62 58 53 48 44 38 33 28 24 19 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 11 15 22 25 23 21 14 10 13 17 23 26 27 29 33 40 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 10 11 3 -4 -1 -3 0 4 3 2 3 3 4 11 6 1 SHEAR DIR 330 338 336 347 353 353 352 335 310 289 311 289 291 282 272 247 248 SST (C) 28.4 28.6 28.9 28.9 28.5 28.1 27.2 26.3 27.2 26.7 26.5 26.7 26.0 26.4 26.9 27.0 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 149 152 155 155 151 147 137 128 138 132 130 132 125 128 133 134 134 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.0 -52.4 -52.7 -52.8 -52.5 -52.5 -52.4 -52.5 -52.2 -52.5 -52.5 -52.9 -53.0 -53.3 -53.6 -54.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 3 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 68 66 70 70 68 65 59 58 57 59 58 57 54 57 60 67 69 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 20 20 20 19 21 22 22 22 22 22 21 19 17 16 13 11 850 MB ENV VOR 12 12 24 22 14 20 1 6 1 8 9 19 10 1 -13 -12 4 200 MB DIV 72 96 104 65 25 41 9 14 42 8 -18 -13 -26 8 14 28 19 700-850 TADV -12 -16 -19 -13 -11 -14 -6 -2 -3 0 1 0 3 3 4 6 6 LAND (KM) 1643 1711 1774 1834 1901 2069 2214 2235 1925 1609 1314 1021 727 439 205 106 67 LAT (DEG N) 12.2 12.5 12.7 13.1 13.4 14.1 14.9 15.6 16.3 16.9 17.5 18.1 18.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 120.7 122.0 123.3 124.6 125.8 128.5 131.3 134.1 136.9 139.8 142.5 145.2 147.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 13 13 13 14 14 14 14 14 13 13 14 12 11 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 27 36 35 24 17 17 8 9 25 4 2 6 0 2 9 7 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 600 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 15.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -3. -4. -7. -8. -8. -6. -5. -5. -7. -8. -10. -12. -13. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 4. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -5. -8. -12. -19. -23. -26. -31. -35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 12.2 120.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072019 FLOSSIE 07/30/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.3 30.0 to 135.0 0.55 4.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.50 4.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.0 17.2 to 1.6 0.01 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 72.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.59 4.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 241.6 742.0 to -74.0 0.61 -4.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.88 5.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.4 34.4 to 2.3 0.56 2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.8 3.0 to 94.0 0.27 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.0 to -2.0 0.45 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 22.7% 26.7% 21.3% 16.8% 13.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.4% 7.8% 2.8% 1.8% 0.3% 0.6% 0.4% 0.3% Bayesian: 7.0% 7.8% 3.0% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 11.7% 14.1% 9.0% 6.5% 4.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072019 FLOSSIE 07/30/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##