* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLOSSIE EP072019 07/30/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 64 69 74 77 81 80 76 73 66 60 55 50 45 40 35 29 V (KT) LAND 60 64 69 74 77 81 80 76 73 66 60 55 50 45 40 35 29 V (KT) LGEM 60 63 66 69 71 74 75 72 69 64 56 50 45 40 34 28 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 10 8 11 18 16 25 14 11 13 18 17 24 21 26 30 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 4 8 5 -1 1 -3 3 5 4 4 4 2 6 7 5 4 SHEAR DIR 349 338 344 337 337 356 360 356 331 304 313 289 294 278 271 268 259 SST (C) 28.4 28.5 28.7 29.0 28.7 28.3 27.6 25.9 27.2 26.7 26.3 26.7 26.2 26.1 26.6 27.0 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 150 151 153 156 153 149 142 124 137 132 128 132 127 125 130 134 135 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.7 -52.1 -52.5 -52.9 -52.3 -52.6 -51.9 -52.3 -51.9 -52.2 -52.3 -52.7 -52.9 -53.0 -53.3 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 4 4 4 4 5 5 700-500 MB RH 71 69 68 71 70 66 61 56 54 55 56 58 57 56 58 62 66 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 18 20 21 20 22 23 23 24 23 22 21 21 20 18 16 13 850 MB ENV VOR 20 12 9 25 26 31 20 8 20 12 17 24 30 22 5 -17 -26 200 MB DIV 69 72 104 108 74 32 6 -3 10 16 -19 11 -12 3 -9 -2 -2 700-850 TADV -8 -13 -13 -13 -11 -12 -13 -3 2 3 2 0 0 2 -1 5 8 LAND (KM) 1594 1672 1738 1804 1878 2034 2167 2321 1998 1690 1395 1125 844 554 306 146 45 LAT (DEG N) 12.1 12.3 12.5 12.8 13.1 13.8 14.6 15.5 16.3 17.0 17.6 18.1 18.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 119.9 121.2 122.5 123.9 125.2 127.8 130.4 133.3 136.2 139.0 141.7 144.2 146.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 13 13 13 14 15 14 14 13 12 13 12 11 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 23 31 38 30 20 18 15 0 30 5 1 7 1 0 4 7 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 612 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 38.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 5. 3. 2. 1. -1. -3. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 8. 5. 1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 10. 14. 17. 21. 20. 16. 13. 6. 0. -5. -10. -15. -20. -25. -31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 12.1 119.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072019 FLOSSIE 07/30/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.4 30.0 to 135.0 0.59 10.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.42 7.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.7 17.2 to 1.6 0.42 5.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 85.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.66 8.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 211.6 742.0 to -74.0 0.65 -8.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.96 11.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.6 34.4 to 2.3 0.87 8.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 28.4 3.0 to 94.0 0.28 1.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 3.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.0 to -2.0 0.58 1.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 30% is 4.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 59% is 4.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 51% is 5.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 38% is 6.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 7.4 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 30.3% 58.6% 50.6% 38.3% 31.1% 23.2% 14.5% 10.4% Logistic: 22.8% 34.7% 21.2% 15.7% 3.8% 3.5% 0.7% 0.4% Bayesian: 25.1% 39.1% 24.8% 15.0% 2.3% 3.6% 0.7% 0.0% Consensus: 26.1% 44.1% 32.2% 23.0% 12.4% 10.1% 5.3% 3.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072019 FLOSSIE 07/30/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##