* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERICK EP062019 07/28/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 43 47 51 58 64 65 65 59 52 47 43 40 37 34 32 V (KT) LAND 35 39 43 47 51 58 64 65 65 59 52 47 43 40 37 34 32 V (KT) LGEM 35 38 40 42 44 49 55 60 59 55 48 42 37 32 29 26 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 3 0 2 3 4 8 10 10 18 21 25 25 29 33 36 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 4 5 5 0 -5 -5 -1 3 2 3 2 1 0 0 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 296 334 253 153 97 255 193 234 218 259 254 268 261 275 273 273 266 SST (C) 28.3 28.4 28.7 28.6 28.5 27.8 27.9 27.7 27.0 26.8 26.4 27.0 27.1 27.1 27.2 27.9 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 149 150 153 152 151 143 144 142 135 132 128 134 136 136 137 145 148 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.1 -53.2 -52.9 -53.3 -53.4 -52.9 -53.2 -53.0 -53.4 -53.1 -53.2 -53.2 -53.4 -53.4 -53.9 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 6 7 7 8 7 9 700-500 MB RH 62 60 58 57 58 56 59 55 54 52 51 51 52 51 54 56 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 12 12 12 13 15 15 15 14 12 10 8 7 6 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR 0 3 10 13 13 11 17 13 10 -3 -15 -17 -18 -14 -4 -6 0 200 MB DIV 30 76 65 86 55 2 29 42 46 -14 -20 -33 -14 -2 10 26 -6 700-850 TADV -5 -10 -9 -9 -8 -3 -2 0 0 5 6 7 3 7 3 4 5 LAND (KM) 2135 2232 2333 2411 2449 2155 1869 1589 1331 1074 836 610 389 203 188 355 378 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.2 12.4 12.7 12.9 13.4 14.0 14.7 15.4 16.1 16.6 16.9 17.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 127.4 128.8 130.2 131.5 132.9 135.6 138.2 140.7 143.0 145.3 147.5 149.7 152.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 13 13 14 13 13 12 12 11 11 11 12 13 13 14 13 HEAT CONTENT 12 14 20 17 13 10 28 18 6 7 2 5 7 11 28 32 39 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 670 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 30.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 10. 15. 19. 21. 23. 24. 24. 24. 25. 26. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 5. 2. 0. -2. -4. -9. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -1. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -10. -9. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 4. 0. -2. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 6. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 16. 23. 29. 30. 30. 24. 17. 12. 8. 5. 2. -1. -3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 12.0 127.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062019 ERICK 07/28/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.9 30.0 to 135.0 0.82 13.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.42 7.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.2 17.2 to 1.6 0.96 12.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.53 6.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 164.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.71 -8.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.31 3.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.9 34.4 to 2.3 0.83 7.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.2 3.0 to 94.0 0.13 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 3.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.0 to -2.0 0.55 0.9 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 59% is 4.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 49% is 5.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 34% is 5.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 5.3 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 45% is 6.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 48% is 8.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 41% is 8.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 16.9% 59.1% 48.8% 34.4% 22.3% 45.3% 47.6% 40.9% Logistic: 51.9% 81.2% 75.1% 71.3% 19.2% 59.3% 17.7% 12.4% Bayesian: 6.8% 11.4% 4.6% 1.8% 0.3% 0.6% 0.5% 0.0% Consensus: 25.2% 50.6% 42.8% 35.8% 13.9% 35.0% 21.9% 17.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062019 ERICK 07/28/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##