* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIX EP062019 07/27/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 36 39 44 49 56 59 60 58 57 55 52 48 45 40 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 36 39 44 49 56 59 60 58 57 55 52 48 45 40 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 32 33 35 38 41 45 47 47 47 46 43 39 34 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 5 3 1 2 6 2 7 8 8 10 13 24 26 29 31 36 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 5 2 0 0 0 -2 -5 -2 -1 0 1 1 2 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 311 296 314 258 270 192 244 222 253 234 256 222 250 255 274 278 280 SST (C) 29.1 28.7 28.3 28.4 28.9 28.4 27.4 27.5 27.6 27.0 27.0 26.5 26.9 27.1 27.1 27.6 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 158 153 149 150 155 149 139 140 141 135 135 130 134 136 136 141 143 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 -53.5 -53.2 -53.5 -53.1 -53.2 -53.0 -53.3 -52.9 -53.2 -53.0 -53.3 -53.3 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 700-500 MB RH 65 64 63 59 58 54 52 52 51 50 49 49 51 51 54 54 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 8 9 9 9 9 11 13 13 13 12 12 12 10 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR -16 -9 2 6 17 16 10 15 12 6 -7 -17 -10 -1 1 3 -5 200 MB DIV -7 19 53 71 72 69 19 2 22 22 18 6 4 6 -20 -12 -20 700-850 TADV -8 -4 -3 -2 -5 -5 -3 -2 -2 -1 1 4 7 7 6 4 2 LAND (KM) 1967 2059 2158 2244 2333 2465 2184 1893 1622 1351 1082 816 535 304 192 353 458 LAT (DEG N) 11.5 11.7 11.8 12.1 12.4 13.0 13.7 14.4 14.9 15.4 15.9 16.4 16.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 124.6 126.1 127.5 128.9 130.2 132.7 135.2 137.8 140.3 142.8 145.3 147.8 150.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 14 14 14 13 13 13 13 12 12 12 13 13 14 13 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 30 17 12 15 23 12 8 30 17 7 9 2 5 9 24 24 23 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 724 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 19.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 25. 27. 28. 29. 29. 30. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 9. 8. 8. 6. 4. 2. -2. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. -13. -13. -12. -10. -9. -8. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 6. 8. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. 3. 1. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 9. 14. 19. 26. 29. 30. 28. 27. 25. 22. 18. 15. 10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.5 124.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062019 SIX 07/27/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.9 30.0 to 135.0 0.89 8.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 3.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.9 17.2 to 1.6 0.92 7.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.6 -30.0 to 145.0 0.41 3.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 124.4 742.0 to -74.0 0.76 -5.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.15 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.3 34.4 to 2.3 0.66 3.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.4 3.0 to 94.0 0.18 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.0 to -2.0 0.54 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 33% is 2.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 27% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 37% is 6.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 36% is 7.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.6% 33.2% 25.1% 20.4% 0.0% 26.9% 36.6% 36.0% Logistic: 12.1% 55.8% 37.3% 29.4% 3.2% 17.7% 2.7% 7.3% Bayesian: 0.2% 2.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 8.3% 30.5% 20.9% 16.6% 1.1% 14.9% 13.1% 14.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062019 SIX 07/27/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##