* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIVE EP052019 07/23/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 30 29 26 22 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 30 29 26 22 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 30 29 28 27 23 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 16 16 15 13 12 13 13 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -1 -3 -3 -1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 15 7 355 337 337 314 303 294 258 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.2 27.2 26.9 26.3 25.8 24.7 23.9 24.0 23.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 135 135 131 125 120 108 100 101 99 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.9 -53.2 -53.2 -53.0 -53.4 -53.1 -53.2 -53.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 70 69 71 69 69 68 58 56 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 14 15 14 13 11 10 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 37 40 45 40 36 25 17 0 -8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 38 37 41 36 32 5 -10 -10 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -3 -2 -1 0 1 -3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 936 896 846 809 778 775 830 855 896 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.3 18.0 18.7 19.3 19.9 20.8 21.5 22.1 22.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 116.7 117.0 117.2 117.5 117.7 118.5 119.6 120.7 121.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 4 7 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 9 CX,CY: -1/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 739 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 13. 15. 16. 16. 14. 12. 11. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. -1. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -7. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14. -15. -15. -17. -20. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -6. -9. -10. -9. -9. -8. -7. -7. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -7. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. -0. -1. -4. -8. -14. -18. -20. -20. -21. -22. -23. -23. -24. -25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 17.3 116.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052019 FIVE 07/23/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.3 30.0 to 135.0 0.66 4.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 2.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.3 17.2 to 1.6 0.12 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.8 -30.0 to 145.0 0.38 2.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 105.6 742.0 to -74.0 0.78 -3.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.15 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.0 34.4 to 2.3 0.32 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.0 to -2.0 0.45 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.0% 9.9% 9.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.7% 3.3% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052019 FIVE 07/23/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##