* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BARRY AL022019 07/13/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 67 67 64 62 57 51 46 43 44 43 43 42 42 41 41 40 V (KT) LAND 65 58 48 39 34 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 65 68 50 40 34 29 27 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 29 20 28 31 27 24 16 9 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 4 0 -2 2 5 -1 7 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 360 336 324 320 302 280 291 283 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.7 29.9 30.4 30.7 30.8 29.8 29.5 29.4 29.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 162 166 170 170 170 165 159 157 157 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 135 138 148 153 154 136 129 127 126 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -50.7 -50.6 -51.0 -51.3 -51.3 -52.1 -51.9 -51.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.0 0.8 0.2 0.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 10 12 8 7 9 2 8 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 56 58 55 59 60 58 60 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 25 26 25 21 22 20 17 13 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -13 3 -5 -42 -48 -56 -99 -75 -54 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 6 34 41 18 12 77 12 -6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -6 -4 1 2 -2 2 5 12 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 38 -2 -63 -137 -206 -358 -501 -638 -778 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 29.3 29.8 30.3 31.0 31.6 33.0 34.3 35.7 37.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 91.9 92.1 92.4 92.6 92.8 93.0 93.1 92.8 92.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 37 20 5 6 6 4 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 560 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -7. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -3. -3. -5. -10. -17. -23. -24. -26. -27. -27. -26. -26. -25. -24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. 0. 0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. -1. -3. -8. -14. -19. -22. -21. -22. -22. -22. -23. -24. -24. -25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 29.3 91.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022019 BARRY 07/13/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.73 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.2 25.9 to 2.2 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.8 0.0 to 147.0 0.10 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.9 33.3 to 3.1 0.25 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.93 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.8 2.6 to -2.7 0.15 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 375.8 814.0 to -65.0 0.50 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.6 30.0 to 128.0 0.52 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.2 -28.0 to 171.0 0.25 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.8% 10.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.3% 3.4% 1.6% 1.7% 0.8% 1.8% 1.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 2.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.6% 4.8% 0.5% 0.6% 0.3% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022019 BARRY 07/13/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022019 BARRY 07/13/2019 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 0( 2) 0( 2) 0( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 58 48 39 34 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 65 64 54 45 40 35 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 12HR AGO 65 62 61 52 47 42 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 50 45 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT