* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BARRY AL022019 07/13/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 55 57 56 54 52 47 46 42 43 42 43 42 42 40 40 40 V (KT) LAND 55 55 50 42 35 30 28 27 27 27 28 29 29 29 29 29 29 V (KT) LGEM 55 56 56 42 35 29 27 27 27 27 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 27 26 19 27 31 23 23 10 8 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 2 3 1 0 2 2 2 0 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 352 360 334 323 317 283 287 265 300 320 319 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.9 30.3 30.6 30.3 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 161 162 166 170 169 170 159 159 158 158 165 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 135 136 139 145 149 144 131 129 128 127 131 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.2 -50.8 -50.7 -51.0 -51.4 -51.7 -52.1 -51.8 -51.7 -51.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.2 0.9 0.8 0.1 0.9 0.7 1.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 10 12 9 9 5 8 3 10 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 51 52 55 55 54 59 55 56 55 60 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 24 26 27 26 22 21 18 16 11 10 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -16 -19 3 -5 -44 -20 -103 -59 -89 -27 -54 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 0 11 29 42 26 50 38 11 35 11 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 6 -9 -7 0 2 4 1 12 0 18 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 69 36 -1 -65 -129 -261 -414 -563 -691 -839 -968 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 28.8 29.3 29.8 30.4 30.9 32.1 33.5 35.0 36.4 37.9 39.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 91.5 91.8 92.1 92.3 92.5 92.7 92.8 92.7 92.1 91.0 90.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 30 37 20 5 6 5 4 4 4 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 546 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 14. 13. 13. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. -2. -3. -8. -12. -20. -23. -27. -28. -28. -28. -27. -26. -25. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 1. -1. -3. -8. -9. -13. -12. -13. -12. -13. -13. -15. -15. -15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 28.8 91.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022019 BARRY 07/13/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 3.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.7 25.9 to 2.2 0.01 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.6 0.0 to 147.0 0.13 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.7 33.3 to 3.1 0.22 0.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.84 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.6 to -2.7 0.35 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 326.8 814.0 to -65.0 0.55 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.9 30.0 to 128.0 0.57 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.6 -28.0 to 171.0 0.25 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.3% 10.2% 7.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.0% 4.3% 2.0% 1.5% 0.9% 2.0% 1.0% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 4.9% 3.0% 0.5% 0.3% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022019 BARRY 07/13/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022019 BARRY 07/13/2019 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 55 50 42 35 30 28 27 27 27 28 29 29 29 29 29 29 18HR AGO 55 54 49 41 34 29 27 26 26 26 27 28 28 28 28 28 28 12HR AGO 55 52 51 43 36 31 29 28 28 28 29 30 30 30 30 30 30 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 38 33 31 30 30 30 31 32 32 32 32 32 32 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT