* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BARRY AL022019 07/12/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 48 51 54 56 58 53 52 48 48 44 43 40 40 40 40 41 V (KT) LAND 45 48 51 54 56 45 33 29 27 27 27 27 28 29 29 29 29 V (KT) LGEM 45 49 52 55 57 48 34 29 27 27 27 27 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SUBT SUBT N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 22 17 15 20 18 30 24 28 13 10 7 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 1 1 4 5 2 1 4 4 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 6 10 11 349 342 325 310 291 295 289 312 336 335 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.2 30.3 30.4 30.4 30.3 30.2 30.4 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 168 168 169 169 169 170 170 161 159 157 158 160 167 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 143 144 147 147 145 144 147 132 130 127 128 129 133 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.3 -51.7 -51.4 -51.3 -51.1 -51.2 -51.5 -51.6 -52.2 -52.0 -52.3 -52.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.4 0.9 1.0 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 9 10 7 10 7 8 5 9 4 10 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 59 59 59 58 54 57 56 56 49 48 49 56 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 20 21 22 24 25 20 20 18 17 13 12 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 40 38 36 20 -8 7 -33 -11 -98 -56 -109 -37 -73 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 43 24 39 39 0 31 0 83 26 18 11 14 -20 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -9 -1 6 0 -8 3 8 0 1 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 125 101 81 51 43 -32 -168 -310 -433 -555 -671 -781 -907 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 28.0 28.2 28.4 28.8 29.1 30.1 31.3 32.6 33.9 35.2 36.4 37.7 38.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 90.0 90.3 90.7 91.1 91.5 92.1 92.4 92.4 92.2 91.8 90.8 89.2 87.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 5 5 5 6 7 7 7 7 8 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 37 35 34 33 35 6 6 4 4 4 4 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 581 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 8. 12. 15. 17. 19. 21. 22. 23. 23. 23. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. -0. -3. -6. -7. -8. -7. -8. -10. -11. -11. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. -1. -1. -5. -8. -13. -16. -20. -20. -20. -19. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 11. 13. 8. 7. 3. 3. -1. -2. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 28.0 90.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022019 BARRY 07/12/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.73 4.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.4 25.9 to 2.2 0.31 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 34.8 0.0 to 147.0 0.24 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.6 33.3 to 3.1 0.35 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.56 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.6 to -2.7 0.64 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 199.0 814.0 to -65.0 0.70 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.3 30.0 to 128.0 0.72 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.0 -28.0 to 171.0 0.29 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.9% 17.3% 11.3% 7.9% 4.5% 8.7% 9.9% 0.0% Logistic: 3.5% 7.5% 4.2% 1.1% 0.3% 1.8% 1.6% 0.4% Bayesian: 2.3% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.2% 8.8% 5.3% 3.1% 1.6% 3.5% 3.8% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022019 BARRY 07/12/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022019 BARRY 07/12/2019 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 48 51 54 56 45 33 29 27 27 27 27 28 29 29 29 29 18HR AGO 45 44 47 50 52 41 29 25 23 23 23 23 24 25 25 25 25 12HR AGO 45 42 41 44 46 35 23 19 17 17 17 17 18 19 19 19 19 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 37 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT