* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWO AL022019 07/11/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 41 44 50 54 58 58 57 56 54 52 50 47 49 49 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 41 44 50 54 39 31 28 27 27 27 28 29 29 29 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 35 37 39 43 45 35 29 27 27 27 27 28 29 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SUBT EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 15 15 17 21 13 20 21 26 28 11 2 9 10 17 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 -1 2 2 7 7 2 1 1 1 -4 0 -2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 21 18 19 3 8 344 348 311 301 285 299 211 50 18 325 N/A N/A SST (C) 30.2 30.3 30.4 30.4 30.6 31.1 30.9 30.0 29.8 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 30.0 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 168 168 168 168 168 169 169 168 164 160 161 161 161 161 168 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 143 144 146 146 150 160 157 141 136 131 131 129 129 128 132 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.5 -52.1 -52.3 -52.4 -51.5 -51.5 -51.2 -51.8 -51.5 -51.8 -51.8 -52.1 -52.0 -52.1 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.8 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.1 0.5 0.6 0.9 0.6 0.5 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 7 7 10 7 10 6 10 4 14 5 16 4 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 65 63 59 59 56 54 54 52 49 47 46 52 54 58 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 16 18 18 19 22 22 24 22 21 20 15 12 9 6 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 7 32 41 46 46 19 -9 2 -33 -12 -53 -19 15 -19 -21 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 12 34 64 32 20 45 -2 41 53 40 8 -4 -4 -6 -23 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -4 -2 0 0 0 1 -3 3 -7 0 1 10 18 16 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 162 146 139 131 114 70 34 -76 -218 -346 -460 -589 -711 -830 -953 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 27.7 27.8 27.8 28.0 28.1 28.5 29.2 30.5 31.8 33.1 34.3 35.6 36.8 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 88.5 88.9 89.3 89.6 90.0 90.8 91.5 91.8 91.9 92.0 91.8 91.3 90.5 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 3 3 4 4 5 7 7 6 7 6 7 7 7 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 47 47 45 42 39 37 39 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 559 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 19. 24. 27. 31. 34. 36. 37. 38. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 4. 6. 5. 3. -1. -5. -7. -7. -6. -7. -9. -9. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 8. 6. 4. -4. -9. -13. -17. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 14. 20. 24. 28. 28. 27. 26. 24. 22. 20. 17. 19. 19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 27.7 88.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022019 TWO 07/11/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.67 4.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.4 25.9 to 2.2 0.36 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 44.0 0.0 to 147.0 0.30 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.0 33.3 to 3.1 0.41 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.14 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.6 to -2.7 0.66 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 115.2 814.0 to -65.0 0.79 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.6 30.0 to 128.0 0.87 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.4 -28.0 to 171.0 0.30 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.2% 16.0% 10.4% 7.1% 3.9% 8.4% 10.4% 11.2% Logistic: 4.4% 12.1% 6.2% 1.9% 0.6% 5.3% 6.7% 3.6% Bayesian: 1.0% 4.0% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 3.8% 10.7% 5.9% 3.1% 1.5% 4.6% 5.8% 4.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022019 TWO 07/11/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022019 TWO 07/11/2019 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 37 41 44 50 54 39 31 28 27 27 27 28 29 29 29 18HR AGO 30 29 33 37 40 46 50 35 27 24 23 23 23 24 25 25 25 12HR AGO 30 27 26 30 33 39 43 28 20 17 16 16 16 17 18 18 18 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 29 33 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT