* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWO AL022019 07/11/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 31 35 38 45 50 56 55 58 53 54 52 48 47 49 50 V (KT) LAND 25 27 31 35 38 45 50 56 38 30 28 27 27 27 28 28 29 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 29 31 33 36 37 30 28 27 27 27 27 28 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SUBT EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 18 17 16 18 16 21 18 28 21 21 8 9 8 15 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 1 1 0 -1 3 5 5 6 -2 3 4 -2 -3 -1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 8 14 18 11 357 6 335 325 307 286 296 286 315 52 3 N/A N/A SST (C) 30.1 30.2 30.3 30.3 30.5 30.9 31.2 30.8 30.0 29.8 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 169 169 168 169 169 169 169 169 168 164 161 161 161 161 160 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 144 144 145 145 149 157 162 155 141 136 132 131 129 128 126 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.7 -52.6 -52.1 -52.4 -52.0 -51.4 -51.4 -51.4 -51.8 -51.9 -52.0 -51.9 -52.3 -52.0 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.0 1.5 1.3 1.2 0.5 0.3 0.8 1.0 0.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 10 10 7 9 8 10 7 8 6 9 5 12 6 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 59 62 63 62 59 58 53 55 53 53 51 54 51 55 55 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 15 17 17 21 20 24 22 23 19 17 13 9 8 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 5 9 20 35 35 34 -12 12 -30 -10 -79 -34 -39 -9 -15 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 16 9 31 59 27 33 12 22 31 69 9 13 15 5 9 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -3 -3 0 -7 3 -1 3 8 -4 0 4 3 18 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 196 180 173 167 172 126 89 25 -96 -241 -370 -511 -642 -777 -915 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 27.6 27.6 27.5 27.6 27.6 28.0 28.5 29.5 30.7 32.0 33.3 34.7 36.0 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 88.0 88.5 88.9 89.3 89.8 90.7 91.4 91.8 91.9 92.0 92.1 92.1 91.8 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 6 7 7 6 7 7 7 6 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 47 46 48 46 41 38 36 39 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):240/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 489 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. -0. 2. 8. 15. 20. 25. 29. 33. 37. 40. 41. 42. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 3. -1. -5. -8. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 12. 10. 11. 5. 1. -5. -10. -11. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 10. 13. 20. 25. 31. 30. 33. 28. 29. 27. 23. 22. 24. 25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 27.6 88.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022019 TWO 07/11/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 3.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.0 25.9 to 2.2 0.37 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 45.6 0.0 to 147.0 0.31 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.2 33.3 to 3.1 0.60 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.6 to -2.7 0.56 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 94.2 814.0 to -65.0 0.82 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.3 30.0 to 128.0 0.92 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.4 -28.0 to 171.0 0.28 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.7% 15.3% 10.0% 6.9% 0.0% 0.0% 8.9% 0.0% Logistic: 4.2% 14.0% 8.0% 3.8% 1.3% 6.5% 10.1% 5.9% Bayesian: 0.3% 1.6% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 3.4% 10.3% 6.3% 3.6% 0.4% 2.2% 6.3% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022019 TWO 07/11/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022019 TWO 07/11/2019 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 31 35 38 45 50 56 38 30 28 27 27 27 28 28 29 18HR AGO 25 24 28 32 35 42 47 53 35 27 25 24 24 24 25 25 26 12HR AGO 25 22 21 25 28 35 40 46 28 20 18 17 17 17 18 18 19 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 25 30 36 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT