* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BARBARA EP022019 07/01/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 51 59 67 78 92 102 106 98 89 83 69 60 51 43 34 26 V (KT) LAND 45 51 59 67 78 92 102 106 98 89 83 69 60 51 43 34 26 V (KT) LGEM 45 50 55 61 67 81 96 108 106 96 84 69 57 47 38 30 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 9 8 6 8 15 9 2 5 6 11 19 18 15 14 18 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 1 0 0 0 -4 -4 -3 -2 1 4 7 9 9 13 13 9 SHEAR DIR 314 320 350 359 73 64 55 325 259 252 245 244 251 259 256 265 262 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.3 29.0 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.0 27.6 27.2 26.8 25.9 26.0 26.1 25.7 25.8 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 165 164 160 156 151 151 151 144 139 135 132 122 123 125 121 123 122 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.3 -52.6 -52.3 -51.9 -52.4 -51.8 -52.2 -51.4 -51.9 -51.2 -51.6 -51.6 -51.9 -52.0 -51.8 -51.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 4 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 700-500 MB RH 72 70 70 69 70 70 66 61 55 51 48 45 44 42 37 37 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 22 23 27 29 31 32 30 29 30 26 24 22 19 15 12 850 MB ENV VOR 12 6 3 8 14 24 35 51 64 59 57 57 55 38 25 14 5 200 MB DIV 133 116 107 119 142 100 132 70 60 52 70 31 18 -7 -20 -32 -19 700-850 TADV -10 -12 -12 -10 -5 -5 -5 -4 1 4 3 -4 5 -2 0 -8 -1 LAND (KM) 1290 1388 1432 1486 1551 1679 1772 1847 1930 1986 2074 2198 2201 1988 1725 1412 1114 LAT (DEG N) 10.9 11.2 11.5 11.7 11.9 12.3 12.8 13.5 14.2 15.0 15.6 16.1 16.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 113.2 114.8 116.3 117.7 119.0 121.3 123.4 125.2 126.9 128.4 130.2 132.2 134.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 17 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 8 10 10 10 11 13 14 13 HEAT CONTENT 25 24 21 20 21 31 39 9 6 6 5 0 0 1 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 661 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 68.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 15. 16. 17. 18. 17. 17. 16. 16. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 4. 2. 0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 5. 7. 10. 15. 14. 13. 13. 8. 5. 2. -2. -5. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 4. 2. 1. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. RI POTENTIAL 2. 5. 9. 13. 20. 19. 11. 3. -2. -7. -10. -12. -12. -12. -12. -11. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 14. 22. 33. 47. 57. 61. 53. 44. 38. 24. 15. 6. -2. -11. -19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 10.9 113.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP022019 BARBARA 07/01/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.1 30.0 to 135.0 0.80 17.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.50 11.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.8 17.2 to 1.6 0.60 10.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 123.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.88 15.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 135.2 742.0 to -74.0 0.74 -11.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.61 9.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.2 34.4 to 2.3 0.79 9.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.2 3.0 to 94.0 0.21 1.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 4.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.0 to -2.0 0.56 1.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 29% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 82% is 6.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 69% is 8.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 59% is 9.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 40% is 9.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 63% is 9.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 75% is 12.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 61% is 12.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 29.4% 81.8% 69.4% 58.7% 40.0% 62.8% 75.3% 60.7% Logistic: 36.3% 75.3% 62.8% 54.5% 20.2% 18.4% 5.1% 7.0% Bayesian: 45.2% 53.8% 58.4% 34.5% 4.4% 16.8% 10.6% 0.1% Consensus: 37.0% 70.3% 63.5% 49.2% 21.6% 32.7% 30.3% 22.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022019 BARBARA 07/01/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##