* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ALVIN EP012019 06/28/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 64 60 53 45 30 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 65 64 60 53 45 30 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 65 65 60 52 45 32 23 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 20 18 18 24 28 32 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 6 9 9 3 3 0 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 226 236 236 230 235 242 246 261 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.9 25.0 24.3 23.7 23.4 23.6 23.6 23.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 124 114 106 100 96 97 97 91 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.5 -52.5 -52.2 -52.3 -52.7 -52.6 -53.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.0 0.4 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 62 60 57 52 46 33 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 15 14 12 11 7 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -18 -22 -17 -16 -21 -31 -45 -75 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 31 37 41 37 22 18 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 14 15 23 20 22 16 21 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 844 857 857 880 916 983 1032 1093 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.6 18.4 19.1 19.7 20.2 20.9 21.3 21.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 115.8 116.9 117.9 118.8 119.7 121.1 122.3 123.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 11 10 9 7 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 498 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -11. -14. -17. -19. -21. -23. -27. -30. -33. -35. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -15. -18. -20. -22. -23. -25. -26. -27. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -15. -16. -16. -17. -18. -20. -23. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -4. -7. -11. -17. -19. -19. -19. -18. -16. -15. -13. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -5. -12. -20. -35. -47. -59. -67. -73. -76. -79. -81. -83. -84. -87. -89. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 17.6 115.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP012019 ALVIN 06/28/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 42.8 30.0 to 135.0 0.12 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.50 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.7 17.2 to 1.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.6 -30.0 to 145.0 0.36 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 370.4 742.0 to -74.0 0.46 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.88 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.0 34.4 to 2.3 0.70 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 6.0 56.6 to 0.0 0.89 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.0 to -2.0 0.31 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 13.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 4.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012019 ALVIN 06/28/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##