* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ALVIN EP012019 06/27/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 50 50 47 43 33 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 50 50 50 47 43 33 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 50 49 45 41 31 23 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 8 9 13 15 14 22 30 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 2 3 6 7 3 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 262 253 230 227 236 241 236 235 260 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.4 27.7 27.4 25.7 25.1 24.1 23.6 23.8 23.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 139 142 139 121 115 104 98 99 94 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.2 -52.1 -52.2 -52.3 -52.3 -52.6 -52.5 -52.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 65 64 63 62 53 43 34 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 15 15 14 12 9 6 4 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -16 -17 -21 -16 -18 -10 -14 -16 -46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 32 40 25 21 45 36 0 -7 -8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 6 14 13 17 12 16 9 10 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 856 842 850 867 885 929 1017 1075 1138 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.6 16.2 16.8 17.5 18.2 19.3 20.1 20.7 21.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 112.6 113.8 114.9 116.0 117.1 119.1 120.8 122.2 123.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 12 13 12 10 8 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 7 8 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 483 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -7. -9. -11. -12. -12. -13. -14. -15. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -11. -13. -13. -14. -14. -15. -15. -18. -20. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -10. -14. -20. -21. -20. -19. -18. -16. -14. -13. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. -0. -3. -7. -17. -28. -37. -50. -54. -56. -56. -56. -56. -55. -56. -57. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 15.6 112.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP012019 ALVIN 06/27/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.3 30.0 to 135.0 0.49 4.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.42 4.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.0 17.2 to 1.6 0.46 3.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.6 -30.0 to 145.0 0.36 2.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 268.4 742.0 to -74.0 0.58 -4.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.76 5.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.8 34.4 to 2.3 0.70 3.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.01 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 14.8 56.6 to 0.0 0.74 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.0 to -2.0 0.46 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.9% 23.3% 21.6% 17.2% 11.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.4% 3.1% 2.8% 0.3% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.8% 8.8% 8.2% 5.8% 3.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012019 ALVIN 06/27/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##