* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * XAVIER EP252018 11/03/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 41 39 38 34 27 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 41 41 39 38 34 27 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 41 41 39 36 31 25 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 24 19 25 28 24 30 31 24 22 18 26 31 34 38 45 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 6 0 -2 -1 0 1 0 4 8 1 -3 -1 0 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 251 239 239 246 238 213 232 238 238 238 226 238 242 236 239 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.3 27.9 27.9 28.1 28.3 28.2 27.8 27.6 27.3 26.9 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 150 148 147 147 147 144 140 140 143 146 145 139 136 133 129 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.9 -54.4 -54.3 -54.8 -55.1 -54.8 -55.4 -54.7 -54.7 -54.7 -54.7 -54.9 -55.3 -55.6 -55.4 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.5 -0.4 -0.3 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 7 6 9 7 9 7 7 6 7 6 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 61 63 60 58 57 52 43 36 32 32 38 41 38 36 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 18 16 16 16 13 11 9 7 5 5 3 3 3 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -6 -10 0 15 9 18 4 -18 -18 -22 -27 -31 -32 -28 -20 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 50 56 56 56 64 45 17 -19 -18 -16 -36 -1 10 18 -9 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 2 3 5 3 0 1 -1 4 4 8 5 5 1 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 527 475 423 379 334 280 277 307 371 475 547 548 540 490 447 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.1 15.5 15.8 16.2 16.5 17.1 17.4 17.6 17.8 17.8 18.0 18.2 18.5 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 107.2 106.9 106.5 106.3 106.1 106.2 106.6 107.2 108.1 109.3 110.5 111.6 112.2 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 4 3 3 3 4 5 6 6 4 2 3 2 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 20 20 20 19 19 16 12 12 15 17 15 10 8 6 3 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 7 CX,CY: 6/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 565 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 13. 16. 18. 20. 21. 22. 22. 22. 22. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -7. -11. -15. -17. -20. -22. -24. -26. -29. -31. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -9. -8. -7. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. -0. -0. -1. -3. -7. -10. -14. -16. -16. -16. -15. -14. -13. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. -1. -2. -6. -13. -20. -24. -27. -30. -30. -31. -30. -32. -32. -30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 15.1 107.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP252018 XAVIER 11/03/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.7 30.0 to 135.0 0.74 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.42 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.8 17.2 to 1.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.49 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 139.6 742.0 to -74.0 0.74 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.46 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.2 34.4 to 2.3 0.63 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.6 3.0 to 94.0 0.18 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 9.5 56.6 to 0.0 0.83 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.5 2.0 to -2.0 0.87 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 1.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.3% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP252018 XAVIER 11/03/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##