* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * XAVIER EP252018 11/03/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 36 37 36 32 27 22 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 35 36 37 36 32 27 22 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 36 37 36 34 29 23 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 20 19 15 19 18 27 23 20 16 15 20 22 30 40 44 47 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 0 3 1 -3 -3 -2 0 5 6 3 -1 0 0 -1 -5 SHEAR DIR 256 261 264 262 244 230 223 243 223 234 220 230 237 237 239 243 240 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.9 29.0 28.8 28.6 28.5 28.3 28.1 27.6 27.4 26.9 26.7 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 152 151 150 150 150 150 151 149 147 147 145 143 138 135 129 127 127 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.5 -54.7 -54.2 -53.9 -55.0 -54.5 -54.8 -54.2 -54.6 -54.6 -54.8 -54.9 -55.1 -55.2 -55.4 -55.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.3 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 6 6 7 6 7 6 7 6 5 5 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 64 62 62 63 64 58 57 55 45 38 34 35 38 39 33 30 28 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 17 19 21 21 18 13 12 8 6 5 4 4 4 3 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 13 5 -4 -7 -10 -4 -6 -8 -13 -15 -15 -23 -32 -34 -29 -22 -19 200 MB DIV 100 86 55 44 65 73 48 17 10 -21 -20 -8 -4 3 11 -9 4 700-850 TADV 0 1 1 0 3 1 -1 -2 -2 2 1 2 0 0 0 -1 -1 LAND (KM) 666 619 572 527 482 399 349 329 348 410 490 559 548 534 501 443 385 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 14.7 14.9 15.2 15.5 16.2 16.8 17.2 17.5 17.6 17.7 17.9 18.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 108.5 108.1 107.7 107.4 107.1 106.8 106.9 107.1 107.6 108.4 109.4 110.6 111.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 4 4 4 3 3 2 3 4 5 5 5 3 2 3 2 HEAT CONTENT 21 21 20 21 21 22 22 20 19 20 18 14 10 7 4 2 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 80/ 7 CX,CY: 7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 581 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 15. 20. 23. 25. 27. 28. 28. 29. 29. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -6. -10. -12. -13. -13. -14. -15. -18. -23. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -10. -11. -11. -11. -10. -9. -8. -7. -6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 4. 2. -2. -5. -10. -13. -15. -15. -14. -13. -13. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 1. -3. -8. -13. -18. -21. -23. -22. -20. -18. -19. -22. -25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 14.4 108.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP252018 XAVIER 11/03/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.5 30.0 to 135.0 0.81 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.42 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.9 17.2 to 1.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 70.0 -30.0 to 145.0 0.57 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 126.4 742.0 to -74.0 0.75 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.31 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.4 34.4 to 2.3 0.31 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.8 3.0 to 94.0 0.20 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.0 to -2.0 0.60 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.6% 16.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 1.0% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 0.4% 0.7% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.0% 5.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP252018 XAVIER 11/03/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##