* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OSCAR AL162018 10/29/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 80 79 79 80 80 80 77 61 49 43 37 30 20 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 80 80 79 79 80 80 80 77 61 49 43 37 30 20 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 80 82 82 81 79 77 76 67 52 43 41 42 43 44 47 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 22 18 18 18 13 22 37 40 52 49 46 31 27 13 22 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 2 2 4 3 15 23 18 10 12 11 1 5 13 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 308 281 255 249 214 196 197 198 192 186 196 190 190 220 261 N/A N/A SST (C) 26.9 26.8 26.8 25.8 24.5 24.1 23.6 22.8 18.5 14.9 12.6 12.3 11.4 11.1 11.2 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 122 121 122 113 103 103 100 96 81 74 71 70 67 65 65 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 106 105 107 101 94 94 92 88 76 71 69 67 65 63 63 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.0 -55.8 -55.4 -55.5 -55.0 -55.2 -53.9 -53.0 -53.5 -53.5 -51.8 -49.0 -48.9 -49.1 -49.9 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.6 -0.2 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.5 2.0 3.2 3.5 3.8 4.0 2.9 1.8 1.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 7 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 51 54 55 57 57 47 42 54 59 56 57 52 54 63 69 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 28 28 29 31 34 36 41 46 41 38 38 37 35 29 26 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 82 79 66 53 72 112 193 247 231 205 209 260 189 202 216 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 35 60 71 77 103 60 25 25 59 56 38 37 38 28 23 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 6 20 20 26 14 -25 -18 -37 -101 -118 -57 -44 13 124 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1148 1215 1284 1424 1564 1456 1110 860 1021 1431 1117 605 302 241 68 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 26.2 27.0 27.7 28.9 30.0 33.2 36.9 40.9 44.6 48.1 51.1 53.6 55.5 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 58.5 58.5 58.4 57.8 57.1 54.4 50.5 46.0 40.3 33.6 26.4 19.2 13.8 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 10 13 16 22 25 28 28 28 27 22 15 12 11 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 7 6 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 6 CX,CY: -3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 632 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -8. -13. -19. -26. -33. -38. -44. -49. -54. -57. -59. -59. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -3. -5. -5. -7. -10. -13. -17. -20. -22. -25. -26. -26. -27. -28. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. -5. -5. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -2. -6. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 1. 3. 5. 12. 18. 12. 8. 7. 5. 1. -6. -11. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -3. -19. -31. -37. -43. -50. -60. -67. -69. -73. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 26.2 58.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162018 OSCAR 10/29/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.73 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.7 25.9 to 2.2 0.35 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.0 0.0 to 147.0 0.03 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.3 33.3 to 3.1 0.56 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.70 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.9 2.6 to -2.7 0.13 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 450.8 814.0 to -65.0 0.41 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 22.6 30.0 to 128.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 69.2 -28.0 to 171.0 0.49 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.8 95.0 to 0.0 0.91 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 2.0% 0.9% 0.6% 0.2% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 2.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.2% 0.7% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162018 OSCAR 10/29/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162018 OSCAR 10/29/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 7 7( 14) 7( 20) 7( 25) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 80 80 79 79 80 80 80 77 61 49 43 37 30 20 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 80 79 78 78 79 79 79 76 60 48 42 36 29 19 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 80 77 76 76 77 77 77 74 58 46 40 34 27 17 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 80 74 71 70 71 71 71 68 52 40 34 28 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT