* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OSCAR AL162018 10/29/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 64 65 67 69 74 81 83 73 63 58 52 50 45 34 30 30 V (KT) LAND 65 64 65 67 69 74 81 83 73 63 58 52 50 45 34 30 30 V (KT) LGEM 65 66 66 67 69 72 73 70 59 49 42 38 36 34 31 29 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SUBT SUBT TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 22 20 16 16 13 19 38 40 53 58 53 40 34 23 15 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -8 -2 0 0 4 1 3 15 20 14 8 3 5 4 4 0 -5 SHEAR DIR 352 331 313 282 256 210 199 199 206 213 241 258 304 351 5 44 41 SST (C) 26.9 26.9 27.0 26.9 26.8 24.4 23.9 23.6 22.9 22.0 17.8 18.2 18.3 19.4 20.6 21.7 22.6 POT. INT. (KT) 123 122 123 122 122 103 101 100 96 90 76 75 75 78 82 86 91 ADJ. POT. INT. 108 106 107 107 108 94 93 91 87 81 70 69 69 71 74 77 81 200 MB T (C) -56.0 -56.3 -56.2 -56.2 -56.0 -55.3 -55.5 -54.2 -54.1 -55.4 -56.9 -58.9 -60.9 -61.0 -60.5 -60.3 -60.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.4 -0.5 -0.2 0.0 0.6 0.5 0.2 1.5 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 7 5 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 2 700-500 MB RH 46 49 54 58 57 55 39 35 39 40 41 38 44 35 29 24 24 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 23 26 27 28 32 36 41 37 34 35 34 36 36 29 26 24 850 MB ENV VOR 93 81 76 72 63 55 94 152 170 129 -33 -130 -189 -233 -235 -193 -147 200 MB DIV -8 -9 43 61 53 94 70 12 23 14 7 -20 -8 -26 -46 6 -24 700-850 TADV -1 -2 0 5 17 21 12 -26 -18 -20 -36 -50 10 1 0 -13 -7 LAND (KM) 1164 1151 1144 1213 1283 1594 1429 1099 940 1078 1368 1680 1565 1438 1397 1448 1313 LAT (DEG N) 25.5 25.9 26.3 27.1 27.9 30.4 33.5 37.0 40.0 42.4 43.9 44.3 43.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 57.5 58.1 58.7 58.7 58.7 57.2 54.3 50.5 46.0 40.9 36.0 31.6 28.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 7 8 11 17 21 23 23 21 17 14 13 13 13 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 6 6 8 7 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 680 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -5. -8. -11. -15. -18. -23. -27. -31. -34. -36. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -5. -9. -14. -20. -26. -30. -34. -34. -34. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -6. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 5. 7. 9. 13. 16. 17. 18. 18. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 10. 17. 13. 8. 9. 7. 8. 8. -2. -6. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. -0. -2. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. 0. 2. 4. 9. 16. 18. 8. -2. -7. -13. -15. -20. -31. -35. -35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 25.5 57.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162018 OSCAR 10/29/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.7 25.9 to 2.2 0.31 0.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.0 0.0 to 147.0 0.05 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.6 33.3 to 3.1 0.55 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.93 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.6 to -2.7 0.41 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 408.8 814.0 to -65.0 0.46 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 42.2 30.0 to 128.0 0.12 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.0 -28.0 to 171.0 0.28 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.4 95.0 to 0.0 0.95 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.6% 12.1% 8.9% 7.3% 4.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.6% 4.1% 2.2% 0.9% 0.4% 1.4% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.5% 5.4% 3.7% 2.8% 1.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162018 OSCAR 10/29/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162018 OSCAR 10/29/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 2( 4) 3( 7) 5( 11) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 64 65 67 69 74 81 83 73 63 58 52 50 45 34 30 30 18HR AGO 65 64 65 67 69 74 81 83 73 63 58 52 50 45 34 30 30 12HR AGO 65 62 61 63 65 70 77 79 69 59 54 48 46 41 30 26 26 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 57 62 69 71 61 51 46 40 38 33 22 18 18 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT