* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OSCAR AL162018 10/28/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 67 68 67 68 71 78 83 91 79 66 50 36 29 24 20 20 V (KT) LAND 65 67 68 67 68 71 78 83 91 79 66 50 36 29 24 20 20 V (KT) LGEM 65 68 70 71 71 74 75 76 75 62 50 44 40 40 42 46 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 14 18 20 22 21 18 16 14 24 23 60 81 65 38 30 26 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -5 -7 -3 -1 0 -6 4 9 10 7 8 11 6 16 14 8 SHEAR DIR 2 5 354 337 316 268 228 199 187 182 222 248 243 228 207 197 202 SST (C) 26.9 27.0 26.9 26.8 26.8 26.6 24.6 23.4 22.6 19.5 14.3 12.3 11.3 10.7 9.2 8.3 1.7 POT. INT. (KT) 124 124 122 121 120 121 105 99 96 84 75 73 71 69 65 64 62 ADJ. POT. INT. 112 111 108 105 104 107 96 92 88 79 72 71 69 67 64 62 N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.0 -56.0 -56.0 -56.4 -56.6 -56.4 -55.8 -56.4 -55.5 -56.3 -56.5 -54.9 -51.1 -48.7 -48.9 -50.0 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.4 -0.4 -0.2 -0.1 0.6 0.5 1.2 1.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 6 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 43 47 48 50 54 56 50 37 39 44 43 55 62 67 71 72 70 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 23 22 22 23 25 29 32 39 32 26 22 20 19 18 16 16 850 MB ENV VOR 99 100 87 73 69 57 53 73 85 118 40 81 136 156 227 241 207 200 MB DIV -7 -9 -13 -11 30 48 97 43 29 59 45 10 -15 27 11 6 -35 700-850 TADV -4 -5 -2 -2 0 13 17 -10 -46 -56 -145 -66 -57 -45 -32 -16 -7 LAND (KM) 1392 1316 1246 1235 1229 1375 1556 1267 886 863 1282 1147 574 320 260 384 206 LAT (DEG N) 25.7 25.9 26.1 26.6 27.0 28.6 31.5 35.3 39.4 43.6 47.5 51.3 54.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 54.8 55.9 57.0 57.6 58.3 58.2 56.4 53.1 48.7 43.0 35.7 26.9 18.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 8 7 7 12 20 26 28 31 33 32 28 23 15 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 6 7 5 5 6 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 673 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -4. -7. -10. -13. -17. -21. -25. -30. -33. -36. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -4. -4. -8. -18. -28. -34. -37. -38. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 12. 11. 11. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 5. 8. 17. 7. -1. -8. -12. -12. -14. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 7. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 2. 3. 6. 13. 18. 26. 14. 1. -15. -29. -36. -41. -45. -45. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 25.7 54.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162018 OSCAR 10/28/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.73 4.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.0 25.9 to 2.2 0.29 0.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.8 0.0 to 147.0 0.04 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.2 33.3 to 3.1 0.60 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.93 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.6 to -2.7 0.35 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 428.8 814.0 to -65.0 0.44 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 43.0 30.0 to 128.0 0.13 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.0 -28.0 to 171.0 0.13 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.4 95.0 to 0.0 0.95 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.4% 13.6% 9.9% 8.4% 4.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.2% 7.7% 4.8% 1.9% 1.0% 2.1% 0.6% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.8% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.4% 7.4% 5.0% 3.4% 2.0% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162018 OSCAR 10/28/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162018 OSCAR 10/28/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 3( 5) 3( 8) 4( 11) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 67 68 67 68 71 78 83 91 79 66 50 36 29 24 20 20 18HR AGO 65 64 65 64 65 68 75 80 88 76 63 47 33 26 21 17 17 12HR AGO 65 62 61 60 61 64 71 76 84 72 59 43 29 22 17 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 56 59 66 71 79 67 54 38 24 17 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT