* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OSCAR AL162018 10/28/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 52 53 55 56 58 62 66 75 85 81 66 48 39 47 49 44 V (KT) LAND 50 52 53 55 56 58 62 66 75 85 81 66 48 39 47 49 44 V (KT) LGEM 50 51 53 55 57 60 63 66 71 75 65 49 39 39 47 54 53 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 5 12 15 16 20 25 19 16 28 37 36 47 56 53 38 38 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -2 -1 0 -5 -2 0 2 -1 9 8 9 13 10 0 8 -1 SHEAR DIR 333 6 16 9 1 334 295 260 218 203 192 191 214 233 197 181 218 SST (C) 26.9 26.8 26.9 27.1 27.1 26.9 26.9 26.0 25.0 23.6 22.3 19.1 15.6 13.1 12.6 10.8 1.7 POT. INT. (KT) 125 123 124 126 125 121 123 115 109 101 94 82 75 73 74 73 69 ADJ. POT. INT. 114 112 112 113 111 106 108 103 100 93 87 77 72 71 72 71 N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.2 -56.2 -56.3 -56.1 -56.0 -56.5 -56.7 -56.3 -55.6 -54.2 -54.8 -55.2 -52.7 -50.0 -47.0 -47.5 -50.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.8 0.3 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 1.0 0.7 1.6 1.8 0.0 1.4 2.8 3.3 3.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 8 8 7 8 7 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 45 47 44 43 44 50 58 55 51 46 47 42 53 44 48 59 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 23 22 22 22 21 24 25 29 38 37 28 20 20 32 39 37 850 MB ENV VOR 104 111 110 105 101 81 64 59 112 156 167 187 165 186 203 326 186 200 MB DIV -66 -30 -26 -20 -16 0 23 59 70 51 21 38 5 11 10 41 -288 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -1 -2 -5 -2 6 21 8 -33 -40 -86 -156 -57 -66 -73 65 LAND (KM) 1713 1567 1422 1315 1211 1121 1219 1458 1530 1184 893 999 1391 1183 525 157 154 LAT (DEG N) 26.2 25.9 25.5 25.4 25.3 25.7 27.1 29.2 32.2 36.1 40.1 44.0 47.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 51.4 52.8 54.3 55.5 56.7 58.3 58.6 57.7 55.4 51.7 46.8 40.9 34.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 12 11 9 6 9 14 22 26 29 28 28 31 36 37 34 HEAT CONTENT 8 6 8 11 9 7 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 17 CX,CY: -15/ -5 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 654 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. -0. -4. -7. -10. -13. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -6. -10. -15. -22. -30. -36. -40. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. 7. 5. 2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -3. -2. 3. 15. 13. -1. -12. -12. 2. 9. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 10. 11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 12. 16. 25. 35. 31. 16. -2. -11. -3. -1. -6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 26.2 51.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162018 OSCAR 10/28/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.6 25.9 to 2.2 0.52 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.4 0.0 to 147.0 0.06 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.0 33.3 to 3.1 0.57 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.70 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.6 to -2.7 0.52 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 348.2 814.0 to -65.0 0.53 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 62.5 30.0 to 128.0 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -31.6 -28.0 to 171.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 53.6 95.0 to 0.0 0.44 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 7.9% 8.3% 0.0% Logistic: 2.4% 9.2% 6.1% 1.6% 1.3% 3.0% 1.9% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.2% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.9% 3.4% 2.1% 0.5% 0.4% 3.6% 3.4% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162018 OSCAR 10/28/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162018 OSCAR 10/28/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 52 53 55 56 58 62 66 75 85 81 66 48 39 47 49 44 18HR AGO 50 49 50 52 53 55 59 63 72 82 78 63 45 36 44 46 41 12HR AGO 50 47 46 48 49 51 55 59 68 78 74 59 41 32 40 42 37 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 41 43 47 51 60 70 66 51 33 24 32 34 29 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT