* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OSCAR AL162018 10/27/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 53 56 57 57 57 58 60 61 63 66 58 54 50 46 43 38 V (KT) LAND 50 53 56 57 57 57 58 60 61 63 66 58 54 50 46 43 38 V (KT) LGEM 50 54 57 59 60 61 62 62 62 62 63 63 58 52 50 51 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 11 1 8 13 18 18 25 17 15 6 13 43 54 30 27 25 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 4 1 -2 -1 -2 -6 -3 -1 3 10 12 21 0 -4 -1 12 SHEAR DIR 178 43 22 13 5 356 334 315 304 273 161 214 227 215 191 177 192 SST (C) 26.6 26.8 26.9 26.8 26.7 27.1 27.0 26.8 25.3 23.8 23.7 20.7 14.7 10.1 9.9 9.8 8.8 POT. INT. (KT) 120 123 124 123 121 124 122 122 110 101 103 90 77 72 69 68 67 ADJ. POT. INT. 107 110 111 111 109 109 106 106 99 94 96 85 74 70 67 66 66 200 MB T (C) -57.2 -56.9 -56.9 -56.9 -57.0 -56.6 -57.1 -57.6 -57.7 -58.3 -58.3 -57.3 -52.9 -47.9 -46.9 -48.1 -50.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 7 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 50 46 47 50 47 48 51 54 50 38 29 33 49 61 69 65 66 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 22 22 21 19 18 17 16 15 13 13 10 12 12 12 10 8 850 MB ENV VOR 101 101 107 110 98 86 61 27 -2 20 20 5 135 247 275 245 196 200 MB DIV 15 15 -51 -49 -40 -39 1 25 41 64 27 16 7 29 39 38 26 700-850 TADV 14 15 -3 -6 -5 -6 -5 2 -2 -10 -13 -62 -136 -50 -53 -63 -37 LAND (KM) 2102 1970 1838 1704 1571 1376 1336 1420 1682 1445 1051 972 1383 1010 651 310 367 LAT (DEG N) 27.4 27.2 26.9 26.6 26.3 26.2 26.9 28.2 30.5 33.7 37.9 42.9 48.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 47.7 49.1 50.4 51.8 53.1 55.4 56.6 56.9 55.8 53.0 48.4 42.0 34.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 12 11 8 6 9 16 24 32 37 40 35 25 21 20 HEAT CONTENT 3 5 7 6 4 7 5 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 702 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -3. -6. -9. -12. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 1. 2. -2. -9. -15. -18. -20. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 9. 11. 12. 14. 15. 15. 14. 13. 12. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -11. -14. -17. -18. -24. -21. -21. -21. -22. -24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 10. 11. 13. 16. 8. 4. -0. -4. -7. -12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 27.4 47.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162018 OSCAR 10/27/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.73 4.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.3 25.9 to 2.2 0.66 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.0 0.0 to 147.0 0.03 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.0 33.3 to 3.1 0.21 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.70 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.6 to -2.7 0.53 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 306.8 814.0 to -65.0 0.58 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 59.5 30.0 to 128.0 0.30 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -22.0 -28.0 to 171.0 0.03 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 81.0 95.0 to 0.0 0.15 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.1% 14.3% 9.8% 0.0% 0.0% 8.4% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.2% 10.2% 6.6% 1.7% 0.9% 3.4% 2.3% 1.2% Bayesian: 3.7% 3.1% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.7% 9.2% 5.7% 0.6% 0.3% 4.1% 0.8% 0.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162018 OSCAR 10/27/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162018 OSCAR 10/27/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 53 56 57 57 57 58 60 61 63 66 58 54 50 46 43 38 18HR AGO 50 49 52 53 53 53 54 56 57 59 62 54 50 46 42 39 34 12HR AGO 50 47 46 47 47 47 48 50 51 53 56 48 44 40 36 33 28 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 40 40 41 43 44 46 49 41 37 33 29 26 21 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT