* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * WILLA EP242018 10/23/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 130 122 111 104 90 74 65 62 60 57 54 51 49 44 42 41 41 V (KT) LAND 130 122 111 104 75 42 32 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 130 120 109 96 72 41 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 14 19 24 26 35 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 1 -1 2 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 211 202 195 212 208 246 246 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.0 29.3 29.4 29.5 28.8 28.4 25.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 154 156 158 160 153 150 120 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.3 -52.5 -52.1 -51.9 -52.1 -51.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 5 6 5 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 62 67 67 66 65 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 24 21 16 15 8 6 14 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 23 24 31 47 54 57 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 62 63 87 88 88 56 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 1 -2 -1 -8 49 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 168 154 136 52 -60 -387 -329 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.2 20.9 21.5 22.4 23.2 25.2 27.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 107.3 107.1 106.9 106.2 105.6 103.2 100.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 9 10 12 15 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 44 42 31 28 20 16 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 8 CX,CY: 0/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 140 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 606 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -6. -13. -25. -35. -43. -50. -55. -58. -58. -58. -58. -61. -64. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -7. -11. -16. -23. -26. -23. -20. -18. -19. -21. -25. -29. -31. -28. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -4. -6. -12. -13. -10. -12. -14. -14. -14. -13. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -8. -18. -26. -40. -56. -65. -68. -70. -73. -76. -79. -81. -86. -88. -89. -89. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 130. LAT, LON: 20.2 107.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP242018 WILLA 10/23/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 26.4 30.0 to 135.0 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.17 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.5 17.2 to 1.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 77.6 -30.0 to 145.0 0.61 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 459.4 742.0 to -74.0 0.35 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 130.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.0 34.4 to 2.3 0.82 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 33.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.33 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.0 to -2.0 0.35 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP242018 WILLA 10/23/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##