* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * VICENTE EP232018 10/22/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 33 31 30 31 35 42 47 51 54 55 57 58 59 59 59 61 V (KT) LAND 35 33 31 30 31 35 42 33 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 35 32 30 29 28 27 27 25 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 17 17 17 16 12 11 5 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 2 1 3 1 -1 7 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 38 40 40 22 26 4 60 158 207 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.8 29.1 29.2 29.5 29.7 29.1 28.6 28.3 28.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 152 155 156 160 162 155 149 146 152 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.2 -53.3 -52.9 -52.5 -52.9 -52.4 -52.9 -52.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 6 6 6 7 6 9 7 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 76 76 76 76 76 71 63 51 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -24 0 46 38 22 -1 -15 -4 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 38 46 64 61 64 79 68 8 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 -1 -1 0 -1 2 -2 4 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 225 229 244 218 193 102 23 -69 -76 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.3 14.5 15.1 15.7 17.1 18.4 19.6 20.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 98.3 99.2 100.1 100.9 101.7 103.0 103.8 104.1 104.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 10 9 9 6 7 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 17 21 28 35 37 19 13 13 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 501 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 21. 24. 26. 28. 30. 32. 34. 36. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -5. -4. 0. 7. 12. 16. 19. 20. 22. 23. 24. 25. 24. 26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 14.0 98.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP232018 VICENTE 10/22/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.1 30.0 to 135.0 0.88 6.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.17 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.4 17.2 to 1.6 0.05 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.6 -30.0 to 145.0 0.48 2.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 66.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.83 -4.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.31 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.7 34.4 to 2.3 0.18 0.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.6 3.0 to 94.0 0.27 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.0 to -2.0 0.80 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.1% 12.4% 12.0% 9.0% 0.0% 11.9% 12.3% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 1.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.5% 0.8% 0.6% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.4% 4.6% 4.1% 3.1% 0.0% 4.1% 4.4% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP232018 VICENTE 10/22/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##