* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * WILLA EP242018 10/21/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 81 89 97 104 108 102 87 60 51 41 38 36 36 36 36 36 V (KT) LAND 70 81 89 97 104 108 102 87 60 41 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 70 81 90 96 100 99 91 76 64 45 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 8 7 10 8 5 9 16 24 27 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -7 -4 -3 -3 1 0 5 0 -1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 137 180 187 152 169 222 179 185 217 226 225 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.2 28.9 28.7 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.7 29.1 29.6 28.5 28.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 155 151 149 147 146 146 149 154 161 150 149 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.3 -52.7 -52.5 -52.8 -52.4 -52.5 -52.3 -52.7 -52.6 -52.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.6 1.1 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 7 7 6 7 6 6 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 74 72 73 72 71 63 59 57 53 48 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 20 20 23 25 25 22 17 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -12 -17 -21 -18 -6 13 24 31 68 52 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 107 92 90 89 65 66 69 87 47 18 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 0 0 3 1 -1 0 8 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 393 374 358 337 323 299 237 177 91 -119 -349 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.4 16.7 17.1 17.5 18.4 19.4 20.4 21.8 23.4 25.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 106.3 106.6 106.9 107.1 107.3 107.7 107.7 107.4 106.5 105.0 103.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 4 4 5 5 5 7 9 11 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 21 19 17 15 14 17 30 44 31 18 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 6 CX,CY: -2/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 508 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 61.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 3. 2. -1. -7. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 6. 8. 9. 9. 6. 4. 3. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 4. 6. 6. 5. -1. -18. -18. -18. -17. -15. -14. -13. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 8. 12. 18. 16. 9. 2. -2. -6. -9. -10. -11. -10. -10. -10. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 11. 19. 27. 34. 38. 32. 18. -10. -19. -29. -32. -34. -34. -34. -34. -34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 16.0 106.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP242018 WILLA 10/21/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.6 30.0 to 135.0 0.47 9.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 25.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.75 15.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.7 17.2 to 1.6 0.61 10.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 88.6 -30.0 to 145.0 0.68 11.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 161.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.71 -10.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.80 11.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.8 34.4 to 2.3 0.83 9.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.2 3.0 to 94.0 0.16 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 4.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.0 to -2.0 0.57 1.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 80% is 12.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 70% is 5.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 64% is 7.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 60% is 9.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 43% is 10.3 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 47% is 7.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 31% is 5.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 80.4% 69.9% 64.3% 60.4% 43.1% 46.8% 31.0% 13.1% Logistic: 52.5% 64.5% 52.3% 46.2% 46.2% 42.2% 24.4% 0.8% Bayesian: 56.7% 30.1% 31.4% 26.0% 6.9% 6.1% 0.6% 0.0% Consensus: 63.2% 54.8% 49.3% 44.2% 32.1% 31.7% 18.7% 4.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP242018 WILLA 10/21/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##