* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * VICENTE EP232018 10/20/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 47 48 48 47 47 48 51 54 57 58 60 60 62 63 65 V (KT) LAND 45 47 47 48 48 47 47 48 51 54 57 58 60 60 62 63 65 V (KT) LGEM 45 48 50 50 50 50 49 48 47 48 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 12 8 5 11 18 22 16 8 1 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -2 0 1 5 1 1 0 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 22 30 23 357 337 359 5 20 27 228 210 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.7 28.4 28.2 28.1 28.3 28.9 29.4 29.6 29.1 29.3 29.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 150 147 145 145 147 154 159 161 155 157 157 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.3 -53.6 -53.7 -53.5 -53.4 -52.9 -52.7 -52.4 -52.4 -52.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 6 5 7 6 7 7 8 8 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 77 78 77 76 73 78 77 79 71 62 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 6 5 4 4 3 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -22 -19 -24 -24 -28 6 25 10 -2 22 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 36 31 20 24 30 46 78 62 77 81 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 1 3 4 4 0 0 0 0 -8 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 133 194 193 201 237 260 249 211 134 85 118 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.5 14.3 14.1 13.9 13.7 13.9 14.8 16.1 17.4 18.7 19.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 94.0 94.8 95.5 96.3 97.2 99.1 100.9 102.7 104.2 105.4 106.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 8 8 8 9 10 10 10 9 9 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 14 11 9 9 11 20 38 32 18 22 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 627 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 15. 18. 19. 21. 23. 24. 26. 27. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -6. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 6. 10. 12. 13. 15. 15. 17. 18. 20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 14.5 94.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP232018 VICENTE 10/20/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.9 30.0 to 135.0 0.68 6.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.50 4.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.8 17.2 to 1.6 0.48 3.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.2 -30.0 to 145.0 0.33 2.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 93.6 742.0 to -74.0 0.79 -5.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.61 4.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.8 34.4 to 2.3 0.39 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.8 3.0 to 94.0 0.09 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.0 to -2.0 0.57 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.5% 20.9% 20.7% 17.3% 0.0% 16.7% 14.2% 12.8% Logistic: 1.6% 7.7% 3.0% 1.8% 0.7% 2.4% 1.3% 2.5% Bayesian: 0.1% 3.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% Consensus: 4.7% 10.6% 8.1% 6.4% 0.3% 6.4% 5.2% 5.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP232018 VICENTE 10/20/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##