* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * VICENTE EP232018 10/20/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 36 37 38 39 41 44 47 50 52 55 53 54 56 57 59 V (KT) LAND 35 35 36 37 38 39 41 44 47 50 52 55 53 54 56 57 59 V (KT) LGEM 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 36 37 38 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 10 7 4 4 13 15 18 16 7 3 13 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -2 -2 0 0 3 1 0 -3 0 10 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 12 35 42 23 344 351 358 6 7 8 338 210 205 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.7 28.5 28.3 28.1 27.9 28.2 29.0 29.5 29.6 29.0 29.2 29.3 28.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 150 148 146 144 142 145 154 160 161 155 157 158 150 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.6 -53.3 -53.5 -53.7 -53.1 -53.6 -53.0 -53.3 -52.7 -52.7 -52.3 -51.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 7 7 6 5 7 5 8 6 9 7 9 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 78 77 77 77 75 75 77 78 76 69 67 59 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 5 6 6 4 5 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -5 -13 -16 -24 -24 -31 -5 25 23 11 8 38 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 34 37 29 21 21 39 46 63 61 59 45 61 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 3 2 4 6 2 0 0 1 -9 9 7 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 97 153 210 230 245 281 264 233 189 92 57 194 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.2 14.1 13.8 13.5 13.4 14.0 15.0 16.3 17.8 19.5 21.2 23.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 93.3 94.0 94.6 95.4 96.1 97.8 99.4 101.0 102.6 104.1 105.7 107.4 109.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 7 8 8 8 9 10 10 11 12 11 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 14 12 10 8 7 10 22 38 31 17 24 37 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 593 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 15. 20. 23. 26. 28. 30. 32. 34. 35. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. -0. -0. 0. 1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. 0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 12. 15. 17. 20. 18. 19. 21. 22. 24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 14.3 93.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP232018 VICENTE 10/20/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.1 30.0 to 135.0 0.77 6.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 3.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.5 17.2 to 1.6 0.62 4.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.33 2.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 72.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.82 -5.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.31 1.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.4 34.4 to 2.3 0.44 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.2 3.0 to 94.0 0.08 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.0 to -2.0 0.54 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.3% 19.0% 18.3% 14.7% 9.8% 15.1% 13.6% 13.2% Logistic: 2.5% 22.1% 9.1% 6.4% 2.5% 10.5% 2.4% 4.8% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% Consensus: 4.0% 14.1% 9.2% 7.0% 4.1% 8.6% 5.4% 6.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP232018 VICENTE 10/20/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##