* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWENTYTHR EP232018 10/19/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 41 43 45 48 49 50 52 53 52 53 55 56 54 55 58 V (KT) LAND 35 39 41 43 45 48 49 50 52 53 52 53 55 55 53 54 57 V (KT) LGEM 35 38 41 42 43 45 46 45 43 42 40 39 39 38 36 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 5 6 5 5 8 9 12 18 19 20 14 20 27 38 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -4 -5 -6 -4 -2 0 3 0 -2 0 0 0 0 2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 346 329 1 8 9 357 337 328 348 349 327 286 235 238 230 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.9 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.0 28.1 28.0 28.8 29.4 29.7 29.6 29.3 29.4 29.6 29.2 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 140 142 142 143 142 143 143 152 159 162 161 157 158 160 156 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.5 -53.8 -54.0 -53.7 -53.6 -53.6 -53.6 -53.3 -53.3 -52.9 -52.6 -52.4 -52.9 -52.1 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 5 5 7 6 6 5 6 6 7 8 9 7 6 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 76 80 78 78 77 77 76 79 79 82 79 78 75 78 77 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 7 6 7 7 7 8 7 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 13 17 6 -3 -17 -12 9 16 20 31 28 32 24 31 46 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 47 28 32 37 27 44 54 82 83 98 94 100 118 122 107 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 1 1 0 1 1 2 1 1 0 5 3 18 38 48 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 103 124 161 199 237 302 269 266 255 219 148 92 24 66 83 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.4 13.4 13.4 13.3 13.2 13.3 13.6 14.3 15.4 16.7 18.1 19.6 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 92.0 92.6 93.2 93.6 94.1 95.1 96.5 98.2 99.9 101.6 103.1 104.4 105.4 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 6 5 4 5 6 7 9 10 10 9 9 8 8 8 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 7 8 8 8 7 8 8 15 28 36 24 20 26 29 25 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 554 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 15. 19. 22. 25. 27. 29. 31. 33. 35. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. -0. -1. -3. -7. -8. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 6. 8. 10. 13. 14. 15. 17. 18. 17. 18. 20. 21. 19. 20. 23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 13.3 92.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP232018 TWENTYTHR 10/19/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.9 30.0 to 135.0 0.73 7.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.50 5.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.6 17.2 to 1.6 0.74 5.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.2 -30.0 to 145.0 0.37 2.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 53.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.84 -5.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.31 2.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.7 34.4 to 2.3 0.77 4.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.6 3.0 to 94.0 0.05 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.0 to -2.0 0.46 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 2.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 20% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.8% 30.6% 23.8% 19.3% 13.1% 19.8% 18.8% 19.5% Logistic: 12.1% 52.5% 32.7% 27.1% 17.3% 42.9% 52.1% 41.3% Bayesian: 0.1% 4.0% 0.6% 0.2% 0.3% 1.1% 1.2% 0.3% Consensus: 9.0% 29.0% 19.0% 15.5% 10.2% 21.3% 24.0% 20.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP232018 TWENTYTHR 10/19/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##