* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TARA EP222018 10/15/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 50 53 55 57 59 58 56 53 50 49 49 50 52 52 52 52 V (KT) LAND 45 50 53 55 57 59 58 56 53 50 49 49 50 52 52 52 52 V (KT) LGEM 45 49 52 54 55 56 56 55 54 52 50 49 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 18 19 17 13 10 9 15 15 14 16 13 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -4 -4 -3 -4 0 0 -2 2 0 0 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 122 126 147 172 178 164 167 184 213 213 219 224 257 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 155 154 154 155 156 157 157 157 157 156 155 154 154 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.8 -53.2 -53.5 -53.2 -53.1 -53.3 -53.1 -53.3 -53.1 -53.1 -53.1 -53.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 8 6 7 6 6 5 6 6 6 7 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 59 58 56 55 55 52 48 49 49 49 50 56 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 7 6 6 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 51 53 48 38 32 18 -8 23 22 29 7 18 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 70 80 66 57 52 16 2 34 9 13 38 19 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -2 0 0 0 0 3 1 5 3 8 -2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 107 108 108 108 108 123 153 199 239 263 284 279 279 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.0 18.1 18.1 18.2 18.2 18.3 18.4 18.6 18.8 19.1 19.2 19.3 19.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 104.5 104.6 104.7 104.8 104.9 105.4 106.0 106.7 107.3 107.8 108.1 108.1 108.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 2 1 1 1 2 2 3 3 3 2 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 20 21 21 22 22 24 25 27 30 30 28 29 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 562 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 18.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 13. 16. 18. 20. 22. 24. 25. 27. 28. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 8. 10. 12. 14. 13. 11. 8. 5. 4. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 18.0 104.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP222018 TARA 10/15/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.8 30.0 to 135.0 0.76 7.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.50 5.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.7 17.2 to 1.6 0.03 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.0 -30.0 to 145.0 0.54 4.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 235.2 742.0 to -74.0 0.62 -4.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.61 4.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.3 34.4 to 2.3 0.75 4.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.2 3.0 to 94.0 0.20 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.0 to -2.0 0.81 0.8 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 33% is 2.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 34% is 5.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 28% is 5.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.6% 32.8% 24.5% 19.7% 13.8% 23.9% 34.0% 27.9% Logistic: 7.6% 11.8% 10.3% 6.3% 9.5% 0.7% 0.1% 1.2% Bayesian: 0.6% 6.2% 1.3% 0.3% 0.4% 0.6% 0.3% 1.2% Consensus: 7.6% 16.9% 12.0% 8.8% 7.9% 8.4% 11.5% 10.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP222018 TARA 10/15/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##