* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NADINE AL152018 10/11/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 53 50 46 44 37 27 23 20 18 18 17 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 53 50 46 44 37 27 23 20 18 18 17 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 54 51 49 46 40 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 17 20 19 20 28 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 9 9 8 8 8 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 256 252 263 255 238 233 228 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.4 27.0 26.7 26.5 26.4 26.3 26.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 128 123 120 117 116 116 115 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 121 116 113 110 109 108 106 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.5 -54.5 -54.2 -54.5 -54.9 -55.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 8 8 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 75 73 69 67 68 65 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 14 12 12 11 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -34 -40 -46 -53 -58 -58 -52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 45 50 68 58 50 32 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 7 10 13 6 5 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1626 1673 1722 1778 1836 1986 2058 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.8 14.3 14.8 15.2 15.9 16.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 32.5 33.0 33.5 34.1 34.6 36.0 37.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 7 3 2 1 1 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 685 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 34.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -8. -10. -11. -13. -14. -13. -12. -11. -11. -11. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -12. -14. -14. -13. -13. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -8. -10. -11. -13. -14. -15. -15. -15. -15. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -9. -11. -18. -28. -32. -35. -37. -37. -38. -40. -42. -42. -42. -40. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 13.3 32.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152018 NADINE 10/11/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.6 25.9 to 2.2 0.31 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.8 0.0 to 147.0 0.02 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 34.1 33.3 to 3.1 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.84 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.4 2.6 to -2.7 0.03 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 249.8 814.0 to -65.0 0.64 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 58.7 30.0 to 128.0 0.29 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.2 -28.0 to 171.0 0.41 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 8.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 3.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152018 NADINE 10/11/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 53 50 46 44 37 27 23 20 18 18 17 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 55 54 51 47 45 38 28 24 21 19 19 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 55 52 51 47 45 38 28 24 21 19 19 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 43 36 26 22 19 17 17 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT