* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MICHAEL AL142018 10/11/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 72 70 69 68 63 56 48 32 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 80 57 44 36 32 31 23 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 80 56 43 36 32 35 39 37 30 24 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 14 16 17 20 29 45 60 76 74 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 2 -2 2 7 7 11 10 0 10 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 209 236 232 225 210 221 236 254 273 294 301 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.1 28.7 28.3 27.1 26.7 22.7 19.8 10.3 17.0 14.7 15.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 156 150 144 130 126 98 87 73 80 77 78 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 140 134 130 117 116 93 83 72 77 74 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.7 -51.1 -51.1 -51.1 -51.1 -51.6 -51.3 -51.8 -51.3 -50.5 -51.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.0 -0.2 0.0 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 4 2 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 53 47 41 35 33 33 41 38 39 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 30 29 28 26 25 26 28 32 27 26 20 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 26 7 22 27 16 49 125 91 64 35 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 75 42 21 51 74 89 40 16 -36 -39 -43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 5 -4 -12 -1 -30 32 24 82 35 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -158 -193 -174 -164 -97 241 319 338 1150 1128 295 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 31.5 32.8 34.0 35.3 36.5 39.3 42.3 45.2 47.3 48.7 50.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 84.5 83.0 81.5 79.3 77.0 70.2 60.6 49.3 37.5 25.3 13.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 16 18 20 22 26 35 41 43 42 41 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 6 3 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 15 CX,CY: 9/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 125 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 574 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 2. -2. -8. -15. -22. -29. -34. -37. -40. -43. -45. -46. -47. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -10. -15. -24. -31. -33. -37. -40. -44. -46. -49. -53. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 8. 10. 10. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE -9. -11. -11. -9. -5. -4. -5. -3. -1. 2. 4. 3. 0. -3. -5. -4. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -5. -5. -5. -1. -8. -11. -20. -21. -21. -21. -21. -20. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -8. -10. -11. -12. -17. -24. -32. -48. -60. -74. -75. -80. -85. -89. -91. -94. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 31.5 84.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142018 MICHAEL 10/11/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -45.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.00 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.9 25.9 to 2.2 0.42 0.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.0 0.0 to 147.0 0.02 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.6 33.3 to 3.1 0.88 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.70 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.6 to -2.7 0.53 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 564.2 814.0 to -65.0 0.28 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 47.4 30.0 to 128.0 0.18 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.6 -28.0 to 171.0 0.41 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 3.9% 3.7% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 2.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.1% 1.4% 1.3% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142018 MICHAEL 10/11/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142018 MICHAEL 10/11/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 80 57 44 36 32 31 23 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 80 79 66 58 54 53 45 38 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 12HR AGO 80 77 76 68 64 63 55 48 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 6HR AGO 80 74 71 70 66 65 57 50 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT