* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NADINE AL152018 10/09/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 39 41 43 42 36 30 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 37 39 41 43 42 36 30 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 37 39 40 41 40 36 30 24 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 7 10 12 8 16 23 26 37 45 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 6 2 3 8 13 10 5 5 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 257 277 283 269 244 257 249 237 227 235 234 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.6 27.0 26.4 26.0 25.7 26.1 26.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 137 135 134 133 130 123 117 113 110 114 118 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 133 132 130 128 125 117 110 106 103 106 110 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.6 -54.8 -54.4 -53.8 -54.4 -54.2 -54.9 -54.9 -55.4 -55.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 -0.4 -0.5 -0.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 9 10 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 78 79 79 79 78 74 67 63 56 47 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 14 15 16 17 13 11 7 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 15 8 -3 -8 -14 -35 -61 -68 -57 -50 -55 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 116 132 105 82 83 90 47 1 -8 -4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -5 -3 -1 1 3 1 5 2 0 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1460 1508 1559 1598 1640 1728 1847 1987 2088 2018 1964 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 10.7 11.1 11.5 12.0 12.5 13.7 14.9 16.1 17.0 17.7 18.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 30.3 30.9 31.5 32.0 32.5 33.5 34.7 36.0 37.4 39.1 40.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 21 21 17 12 8 3 1 0 0 0 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 608 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 11. 14. 16. 18. 19. 20. 20. 20. 19. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 1. -3. -10. -16. -16. -17. -17. -18. -19. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -6. -7. -7. -6. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -8. -9. -10. -11. -13. -13. -13. -12. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. -3. -7. -13. -18. -21. -22. -22. -22. -21. -21. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 7. 1. -5. -14. -22. -28. -29. -30. -30. -29. -27. -25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 10.7 30.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152018 NADINE 10/09/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.67 4.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.5 25.9 to 2.2 0.73 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.8 0.0 to 147.0 0.11 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.8 33.3 to 3.1 0.41 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.28 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.7 2.6 to -2.7 0.17 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 87.2 814.0 to -65.0 0.83 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.5 30.0 to 128.0 0.66 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 103.6 -28.0 to 171.0 0.66 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.4% 16.9% 11.1% 7.4% 4.1% 8.9% 9.9% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 8.4% 2.5% 1.0% 0.4% 1.2% 1.5% 1.2% Bayesian: 1.5% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 2.8% 8.7% 4.6% 2.8% 1.5% 3.4% 3.8% 0.4% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152018 NADINE 10/09/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 37 39 41 43 42 36 30 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 35 34 36 38 40 39 33 27 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 35 32 31 33 35 34 28 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 27 26 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT