* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MICHAEL AL142018 10/09/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 94 96 96 97 97 90 84 76 68 54 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 90 94 96 96 97 62 38 30 28 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 90 95 97 98 99 64 38 30 36 38 36 30 25 25 30 36 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 12 11 13 14 9 12 12 11 23 37 49 81 89 77 46 27 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 2 4 7 2 0 2 6 7 14 9 1 4 0 4 6 -1 SHEAR DIR 302 288 281 289 280 242 251 234 223 232 242 258 267 261 254 239 236 SST (C) 29.3 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.4 28.4 27.1 25.3 22.5 17.1 13.1 14.2 10.6 11.0 11.0 10.9 POT. INT. (KT) 157 161 160 159 157 160 145 130 114 97 80 74 74 69 68 67 67 ADJ. POT. INT. 143 144 143 141 139 142 130 118 106 91 76 72 71 67 66 65 65 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -51.8 -51.8 -51.7 -51.5 -50.7 -50.9 -51.0 -51.9 -52.5 -52.9 -52.8 -51.1 -49.4 -46.2 -44.2 -43.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.9 1.3 1.3 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.1 1.0 0.5 -0.1 -0.3 -0.4 0.1 1.7 3.8 4.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 8 8 9 4 4 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 66 65 65 64 67 65 58 47 39 33 35 47 48 46 52 56 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 29 29 29 28 30 32 28 26 24 25 22 17 11 15 25 30 30 850 MB ENV VOR 61 54 49 26 32 40 16 3 18 84 107 64 106 126 175 237 235 200 MB DIV 26 32 21 24 40 29 27 93 86 70 67 33 37 31 41 47 34 700-850 TADV 26 22 16 10 10 9 -12 -6 -13 -21 -26 76 159 59 39 22 14 LAND (KM) 306 406 351 229 113 -115 -104 -32 284 298 300 527 1157 1314 881 589 377 LAT (DEG N) 24.6 25.7 26.7 27.8 28.9 31.1 33.3 35.4 38.0 41.0 44.1 47.3 50.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 86.1 86.3 86.4 86.2 86.0 84.5 81.5 77.4 71.7 64.2 55.5 45.8 37.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 11 12 15 18 23 29 34 36 35 29 24 19 17 17 HEAT CONTENT 32 43 38 29 28 5 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 11 CX,CY: -2/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 661 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 4. 2. -2. -7. -12. -18. -25. -31. -37. -43. -48. -52. -55. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. 1. 1. -0. -3. -11. -20. -28. -32. -34. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -7. -9. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. 0. 1. -3. -7. -10. -10. -16. -24. -32. -26. -13. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 6. 6. 7. 7. 0. -6. -14. -22. -36. -55. -76. -79. -73. -72. -80. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 24.6 86.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142018 MICHAEL 10/09/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.80 6.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.8 25.9 to 2.2 0.59 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 34.0 0.0 to 147.0 0.23 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.4 33.3 to 3.1 0.82 2.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.54 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.6 to -2.7 0.39 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 349.0 814.0 to -65.0 0.53 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 52.1 30.0 to 128.0 0.23 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.6 -28.0 to 171.0 0.28 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 95.0 to 0.0 0.97 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 21% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 20.9% 22.0% 17.4% 15.1% 6.6% 10.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 17.5% 29.1% 19.5% 17.3% 10.6% 15.2% 8.9% 0.2% Bayesian: 20.5% 25.2% 9.4% 20.6% 3.6% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 19.6% 25.4% 15.4% 17.7% 6.9% 8.7% 3.0% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142018 MICHAEL 10/09/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142018 MICHAEL 10/09/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 12 19( 29) 20( 43) 0( 43) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 3 12( 15) 4( 18) 0( 18) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 90 94 96 96 97 62 38 30 28 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 90 89 91 91 92 57 33 25 23 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 90 87 86 86 87 52 28 20 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 90 84 81 80 81 46 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 90 81 75 72 71 36 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 90 94 85 79 76 54 30 22 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 90 94 96 87 81 77 53 45 43 35 15 15 15 15 15 15 15