* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MICHAEL AL142018 10/08/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 74 77 79 80 79 81 77 74 67 68 61 42 26 17 19 19 V (KT) LAND 70 74 77 79 80 79 81 45 32 31 33 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 70 74 78 79 80 82 84 46 33 29 36 36 30 24 22 25 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 15 16 22 17 12 15 15 18 13 29 44 67 71 69 51 34 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 0 2 2 3 -3 -2 2 4 14 12 18 19 12 2 -3 SHEAR DIR 295 288 289 299 295 295 266 269 247 223 216 237 226 223 231 255 224 SST (C) 29.4 29.2 29.3 29.2 29.4 29.3 29.5 29.4 28.1 25.1 23.4 21.6 15.9 12.6 12.3 9.8 9.6 POT. INT. (KT) 158 155 157 155 159 157 161 161 141 111 100 92 77 72 71 69 68 ADJ. POT. INT. 144 141 142 140 142 139 143 143 127 101 92 85 74 70 69 67 67 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.2 -52.5 -52.4 -51.8 -51.8 -51.3 -51.4 -51.7 -52.1 -51.6 -52.3 -52.4 -50.8 -47.9 -45.5 -45.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.6 1.0 0.7 1.0 1.0 0.6 0.5 0.0 -0.3 -0.4 -0.3 0.8 3.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 8 9 8 9 6 5 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 68 66 64 66 67 68 69 64 53 38 31 30 35 41 49 56 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 26 27 26 27 26 25 27 24 23 21 27 28 22 18 16 21 26 850 MB ENV VOR 78 86 69 66 57 14 38 20 31 26 62 161 176 157 206 223 233 200 MB DIV 55 54 26 29 9 27 34 43 100 71 126 68 79 43 36 16 13 700-850 TADV 19 21 22 16 21 15 11 12 -6 -24 21 33 8 -120 -9 24 -12 LAND (KM) 33 103 173 271 371 255 14 -173 -118 37 294 337 272 519 1068 1468 1080 LAT (DEG N) 21.7 22.6 23.5 24.5 25.4 27.5 29.6 31.9 34.2 36.6 39.0 41.5 44.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 85.1 85.3 85.5 85.8 86.0 86.0 85.0 83.1 80.0 75.5 69.7 62.4 54.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 10 10 10 11 13 16 19 24 29 31 33 31 27 24 23 HEAT CONTENT 124 56 35 30 37 30 35 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 8 CX,CY: 0/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 568 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 18.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 2. -0. -3. -7. -12. -16. -20. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. -2. -5. -12. -19. -28. -33. -36. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -5. -8. -12. -5. -3. -12. -18. -20. -14. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 9. 10. 9. 11. 7. 4. -3. -2. -9. -28. -44. -53. -51. -51. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 21.7 85.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142018 MICHAEL 10/08/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.73 8.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.5 25.9 to 2.2 0.40 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 56.4 0.0 to 147.0 0.38 2.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.0 33.3 to 3.1 0.84 3.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.85 3.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.6 to -2.7 0.40 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 201.0 814.0 to -65.0 0.70 2.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 71.8 30.0 to 128.0 0.43 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.6 -28.0 to 171.0 0.31 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 28% is 5.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 34% is 3.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 6.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 28.5% 33.6% 25.3% 24.0% 7.7% 11.0% 11.2% 8.9% Logistic: 15.9% 24.1% 18.2% 13.2% 5.5% 9.7% 12.2% 6.2% Bayesian: 7.4% 7.9% 4.6% 7.0% 2.4% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 17.3% 21.9% 16.0% 14.7% 5.2% 7.2% 7.9% 5.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142018 MICHAEL 10/08/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142018 MICHAEL 10/08/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 6( 10) 7( 16) 7( 22) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 3 2( 5) 9( 13) 2( 15) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 74 77 79 80 79 81 45 32 31 33 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 70 69 72 74 75 74 76 40 27 26 28 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 70 67 66 68 69 68 70 34 21 20 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 61 60 62 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT