* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MICHAEL AL142018 10/08/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 72 78 82 86 90 89 85 78 67 65 55 35 33 27 19 N/A V (KT) LAND 65 72 78 82 86 90 89 74 43 33 35 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 65 72 78 82 84 90 92 88 44 33 36 35 31 28 26 25 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 14 8 13 19 14 14 15 11 12 21 42 62 82 83 51 31 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 4 2 0 4 3 0 6 2 9 6 0 10 7 8 1 0 SHEAR DIR 287 300 279 282 300 295 309 257 275 238 234 243 229 215 223 228 248 SST (C) 29.5 29.4 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.5 29.3 29.5 28.8 27.2 26.7 23.8 21.6 13.9 12.8 9.9 9.4 POT. INT. (KT) 159 158 154 156 157 160 157 161 151 130 126 103 92 74 72 69 69 ADJ. POT. INT. 144 144 140 142 141 142 138 142 134 118 116 95 86 72 70 68 67 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.2 -52.3 -52.2 -52.0 -51.3 -51.3 -50.9 -51.1 -50.9 -51.1 -51.5 -51.6 -50.5 -47.7 -45.8 -45.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.7 1.0 1.0 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.2 1.3 1.8 2.8 2.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 9 9 9 8 9 8 9 5 4 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 70 68 65 63 67 66 67 62 54 37 28 26 29 38 45 58 70 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 27 28 28 28 29 28 27 24 19 23 22 16 26 27 25 20 850 MB ENV VOR 75 79 83 69 75 44 25 38 25 23 45 -9 80 218 293 318 274 200 MB DIV 63 63 42 17 28 16 39 42 31 48 42 -15 27 61 61 60 54 700-850 TADV 14 14 19 17 16 29 12 15 6 7 1 -43 -81 -152 -82 -58 33 LAND (KM) 105 48 99 177 267 370 181 -10 -95 -59 206 362 352 155 646 1178 1335 LAT (DEG N) 20.9 21.7 22.5 23.4 24.3 26.2 28.1 30.1 32.2 34.4 36.7 39.2 42.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 85.1 85.3 85.4 85.6 85.9 86.1 85.6 84.4 82.1 78.6 73.6 67.2 59.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 9 9 10 10 10 13 16 21 26 30 33 32 29 27 25 HEAT CONTENT 119 108 54 34 31 39 27 33 3 8 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 7 CX,CY: 3/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 536 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 39.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 4. 2. -2. -7. -11. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. -1. -7. -17. -28. -35. -38. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -8. -10. -13. THETA_E EXCESS -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. -1. -5. -12. -8. -10. -18. -6. -5. -8. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 8. 12. 11. 8. 4. 1. -2. -5. -6. -8. -8. -8. -8. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 7. 13. 17. 21. 25. 24. 20. 13. 2. 0. -10. -30. -32. -38. -46. -58. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 20.9 85.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142018 MICHAEL 10/08/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.80 13.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.7 25.9 to 2.2 0.51 4.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 69.2 0.0 to 147.0 0.47 3.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.6 33.3 to 3.1 0.82 5.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.93 5.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.6 to -2.7 0.40 1.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 196.6 814.0 to -65.0 0.70 3.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.2 30.0 to 128.0 0.48 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.6 -28.0 to 171.0 0.35 1.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 41% is 8.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 51% is 4.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 40% is 5.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 8.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 25% is 5.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 40.5% 51.1% 40.3% 34.6% 11.3% 24.7% 15.6% 13.7% Logistic: 20.2% 34.2% 25.3% 14.2% 5.7% 14.5% 12.2% 6.3% Bayesian: 12.8% 14.5% 8.9% 14.8% 2.6% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1% Consensus: 24.5% 33.3% 24.8% 21.2% 6.5% 13.5% 9.4% 6.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142018 MICHAEL 10/08/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142018 MICHAEL 10/08/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 6( 8) 10( 17) 12( 27) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 3( 3) 2( 5) 14( 18) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 72 78 82 86 90 89 74 43 33 35 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 65 64 70 74 78 82 81 66 35 25 27 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 65 62 61 65 69 73 72 57 26 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 59 63 62 47 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT