* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL132018 10/07/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 50 49 50 50 52 53 54 59 60 60 58 54 50 49 46 43 V (KT) LAND 50 50 49 50 50 52 53 54 59 60 60 58 54 50 49 46 43 V (KT) LGEM 50 50 50 50 50 53 54 57 60 63 64 62 57 53 49 43 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 5 9 3 4 15 13 7 4 9 7 23 11 17 24 28 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 4 4 10 9 8 9 9 2 1 0 -3 1 10 5 5 3 SHEAR DIR 103 303 318 323 248 263 213 253 313 304 240 250 236 351 337 334 1 SST (C) 24.2 24.4 24.5 24.3 23.6 24.4 25.3 25.9 25.5 25.7 25.4 25.1 25.0 24.9 24.3 24.1 23.7 POT. INT. (KT) 99 100 102 100 96 102 109 114 110 111 108 106 105 104 100 98 96 ADJ. POT. INT. 85 86 88 88 85 90 97 101 97 97 95 93 91 91 87 86 83 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.5 -54.5 -54.2 -53.8 -54.4 -54.3 -55.2 -54.8 -54.9 -54.3 -54.9 -54.7 -54.9 -54.7 -54.9 -55.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.6 1.5 1.2 1.1 0.6 0.8 1.1 1.1 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 3 3 4 5 5 5 6 6 6 5 2 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 36 37 37 36 33 33 30 35 46 49 54 50 42 38 38 33 36 MODEL VTX (KT) 30 29 28 29 28 30 30 31 33 32 32 31 29 26 27 25 22 850 MB ENV VOR 18 16 26 61 66 76 42 11 3 -38 -39 -47 -8 42 52 42 -11 200 MB DIV -16 -14 -5 9 10 -17 13 -51 5 -7 18 10 4 2 -33 -61 -33 700-850 TADV 10 9 8 9 6 3 0 -4 5 9 0 2 -11 -30 -35 -4 -10 LAND (KM) 1198 1256 1321 1411 1506 1753 2042 2249 1979 1755 1564 1412 1282 1141 1016 889 794 LAT (DEG N) 36.1 35.8 35.4 34.9 34.4 33.0 31.3 29.7 28.6 28.3 28.5 29.2 30.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 50.5 49.3 48.2 46.9 45.6 42.9 40.2 37.7 35.2 32.9 30.7 28.7 26.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 11 12 12 14 14 13 11 10 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):120/ 9 CX,CY: 8/ -4 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 555 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -13. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 8. 7. 7. 5. 3. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -7. -6. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -13. -12. -14. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -0. -0. 2. 3. 4. 9. 10. 10. 8. 4. 0. -1. -4. -7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 36.1 50.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132018 LESLIE 10/07/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 3.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.7 25.9 to 2.2 0.90 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 147.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.1 33.3 to 3.1 0.67 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.70 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.6 to -2.7 0.48 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 414.2 814.0 to -65.0 0.45 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 36.3 30.0 to 128.0 0.06 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.2 -28.0 to 171.0 0.12 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 57.0 95.0 to 0.0 0.40 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.0% 15.2% 10.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.3% 4.3% 3.7% 1.9% 0.4% 1.8% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.9% 6.5% 4.8% 0.6% 0.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132018 LESLIE 10/07/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132018 LESLIE 10/07/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 50 49 50 50 52 53 54 59 60 60 58 54 50 49 46 43 18HR AGO 50 49 48 49 49 51 52 53 58 59 59 57 53 49 48 45 42 12HR AGO 50 47 46 47 47 49 50 51 56 57 57 55 51 47 46 43 40 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 40 42 43 44 49 50 50 48 44 40 39 36 33 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT