* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FOURTEEN AL142018 10/07/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 38 42 47 54 58 63 67 64 62 59 52 43 42 40 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 38 42 47 54 58 63 59 37 30 32 25 16 15 N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 37 39 43 44 45 48 51 33 29 28 30 28 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 25 19 19 20 21 18 18 10 12 15 18 30 50 59 85 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 0 3 3 -1 2 0 2 -3 2 2 3 8 -7 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 289 288 279 270 278 287 301 296 295 271 247 227 228 248 252 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.4 29.1 29.1 29.5 29.6 29.3 29.3 29.0 27.1 23.2 22.3 22.8 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 154 157 159 157 152 152 160 162 157 159 155 129 97 92 95 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 139 143 145 144 138 137 143 145 140 142 140 116 88 84 85 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.6 -53.2 -52.8 -52.8 -52.5 -52.2 -51.9 -51.6 -51.0 -51.0 -51.3 -51.4 -52.1 -53.8 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.6 1.0 0.9 1.1 1.0 0.5 0.4 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 9 10 9 9 9 10 9 10 6 3 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 72 71 67 65 63 59 60 59 61 61 54 33 26 22 26 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 14 16 19 21 23 24 23 24 25 23 21 21 22 24 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 71 70 70 74 86 73 65 45 14 35 -2 18 15 38 -29 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 52 40 47 59 59 47 30 36 54 53 12 76 61 32 22 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 0 -1 8 16 7 20 19 26 9 16 -8 -61 30 -89 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 63 64 64 57 31 115 287 390 240 -8 -238 -244 7 228 305 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.4 19.0 19.6 20.3 21.0 22.5 24.1 25.9 28.0 30.3 33.0 36.1 38.4 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 87.0 86.9 86.8 86.7 86.6 86.7 87.0 87.4 87.0 85.9 83.4 79.7 75.0 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 6 7 7 8 8 9 10 11 15 19 22 22 22 22 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 47 49 51 49 42 24 41 75 32 32 4 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 647 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 31.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 9. 14. 19. 23. 27. 30. 32. 32. 31. 31. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 0. -0. -2. -4. -7. -13. -22. -35. -37. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 2. 4. 6. 8. 7. 8. 9. 5. 2. 2. 2. 4. 3. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 17. 24. 29. 33. 37. 34. 32. 29. 22. 13. 12. 10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 18.4 87.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142018 FOURTEEN 10/07/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.67 3.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.9 25.9 to 2.2 0.21 0.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 47.6 0.0 to 147.0 0.32 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 31.3 33.3 to 3.1 0.07 0.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.14 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.6 to -2.7 0.36 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 101.8 814.0 to -65.0 0.81 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.0 30.0 to 128.0 0.84 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.4 -28.0 to 171.0 0.40 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.1% 11.9% 8.0% 0.0% 0.0% 6.1% 7.5% 13.1% Logistic: 2.5% 7.2% 3.3% 1.2% 0.3% 2.3% 4.3% 10.3% Bayesian: 1.2% 0.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.4% Consensus: 2.6% 6.6% 3.9% 0.5% 0.1% 2.8% 4.1% 7.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142018 FOURTEEN 10/07/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142018 FOURTEEN 10/07/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 35 38 42 47 54 58 63 59 37 30 32 25 16 15 DIS 18HR AGO 30 29 32 35 39 44 51 55 60 56 34 27 29 22 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 33 38 45 49 54 50 28 21 23 16 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 24 29 36 40 45 41 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT