* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SERGIO EP212018 10/06/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 110 109 108 105 105 99 94 93 89 85 81 75 65 54 33 22 N/A V (KT) LAND 110 109 108 105 105 99 94 93 89 85 81 75 65 48 35 29 N/A V (KT) LGEM 110 109 106 104 102 96 91 85 77 68 61 53 43 29 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 6 9 9 11 9 11 15 8 8 13 19 23 31 36 51 63 58 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 2 -3 -5 -4 0 2 9 7 8 6 9 8 5 1 -7 7 SHEAR DIR 340 8 49 61 57 52 51 1 318 303 276 266 238 234 226 237 248 SST (C) 27.6 27.6 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.0 27.8 27.1 26.5 26.6 25.6 24.0 23.4 26.2 28.1 28.3 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 139 138 140 141 142 141 139 133 128 130 120 105 100 130 150 153 147 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.9 -51.8 -51.4 -51.7 -51.4 -51.2 -51.1 -51.0 -51.1 -51.1 -51.1 -51.0 -51.1 -50.7 -49.8 -49.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.2 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.3 0.6 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 3 4 3 3 1 0 700-500 MB RH 64 64 64 67 64 63 61 57 56 54 50 51 46 47 44 44 32 MODEL VTX (KT) 36 37 40 39 42 41 41 42 41 40 40 39 37 33 18 15 15 850 MB ENV VOR 65 72 67 82 78 80 71 72 73 70 75 78 50 41 69 37 4 200 MB DIV 74 54 46 24 11 28 27 54 55 67 49 52 14 57 15 12 -12 700-850 TADV 6 3 1 0 -1 -3 -3 -2 0 2 9 13 -3 2 -37 -16 13 LAND (KM) 1576 1629 1684 1731 1778 1822 1799 1705 1551 1339 1084 767 381 -66 -312 -808 -999 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 14.9 14.7 14.7 14.6 14.9 15.6 16.5 17.5 18.7 20.1 22.0 24.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 123.2 123.8 124.3 124.9 125.4 126.2 126.5 126.2 125.2 123.6 121.6 119.3 116.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 6 8 11 13 16 19 22 25 25 25 HEAT CONTENT 6 8 9 9 10 10 10 4 1 1 0 0 0 0 12 13 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):235/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 579 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -11. -18. -26. -34. -39. -44. -49. -52. -54. -54. -55. -57. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -1. 3. 4. 5. 3. -0. -5. -12. -18. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -6. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 5. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 4. 1. -4. -17. -18. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. 5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -5. -5. -11. -15. -17. -21. -25. -29. -35. -45. -56. -77. -88. -98. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 15.0 123.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP212018 SERGIO 10/06/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 29.9 30.0 to 135.0 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.42 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.0 17.2 to 1.6 0.53 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.8 -30.0 to 145.0 0.41 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 488.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.31 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 110.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.16 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.5 34.4 to 2.3 0.71 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.4 3.0 to 94.0 0.06 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.0 to -2.0 0.58 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.9% 13.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.1% 2.0% 0.6% 0.5% 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.8% 5.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212018 SERGIO 10/06/18 06 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##