* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SERGIO EP212018 10/06/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 110 111 110 109 106 99 96 92 91 86 84 77 70 61 48 30 15 V (KT) LAND 110 111 110 109 106 99 96 92 91 86 84 77 70 61 41 31 28 V (KT) LGEM 110 110 107 105 102 97 93 87 79 71 65 58 49 40 29 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 5 4 7 7 12 11 15 7 4 11 16 18 20 30 42 54 77 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 5 0 -3 -5 0 4 11 8 9 7 6 10 3 9 2 -7 SHEAR DIR 37 52 19 71 61 62 60 23 19 306 291 274 248 234 226 226 231 SST (C) 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.6 27.8 27.7 27.5 27.1 26.8 27.0 26.4 25.4 23.2 23.8 28.1 28.1 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 137 137 137 138 140 138 136 132 130 134 128 119 97 105 151 151 147 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.7 -52.1 -51.6 -51.1 -51.6 -50.6 -51.3 -50.6 -51.2 -50.7 -51.1 -50.8 -51.0 -50.5 -49.3 -48.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.2 0.9 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.1 0.7 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 5 2 0 700-500 MB RH 65 66 65 65 65 66 64 59 59 54 55 50 50 47 49 53 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 37 38 38 40 40 40 43 42 42 40 41 39 38 35 27 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 49 60 70 71 77 85 86 68 76 70 67 57 73 53 74 83 57 200 MB DIV 75 80 44 20 27 13 59 43 88 50 57 41 31 55 67 24 20 700-850 TADV 4 3 2 0 0 -3 -3 -4 -1 3 2 7 0 -2 -37 8 -84 LAND (KM) 1491 1549 1606 1664 1723 1788 1796 1737 1619 1436 1204 918 552 108 -153 -706 -999 LAT (DEG N) 15.4 15.2 15.0 14.9 14.7 14.8 15.4 16.2 17.1 18.2 19.5 21.1 23.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 122.5 123.1 123.6 124.2 124.8 125.7 126.3 126.3 125.7 124.4 122.6 120.4 117.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 6 5 4 4 5 7 10 12 15 19 22 26 28 27 HEAT CONTENT 5 6 7 9 10 9 7 4 2 3 1 0 0 0 10 11 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):230/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 613 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -6. -12. -19. -27. -34. -40. -44. -48. -51. -55. -54. -56. -58. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. 0. 4. 6. 6. 5. 3. -0. -5. -11. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 6. 7. 6. 4. 5. 3. 0. -2. -10. -19. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 0. -1. -4. -11. -14. -18. -19. -24. -26. -33. -40. -49. -62. -80. -95. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 15.4 122.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP212018 SERGIO 10/06/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 28.0 30.0 to 135.0 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.50 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.1 17.2 to 1.6 0.65 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.2 -30.0 to 145.0 0.45 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 474.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.33 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 110.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.16 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.5 34.4 to 2.3 0.78 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.4 3.0 to 94.0 0.05 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.0 to -2.0 0.49 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.5% 16.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 6.9% 5.2% 2.0% 1.6% 0.4% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.4% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 7.6% 7.6% 0.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212018 SERGIO 10/06/18 00 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##