* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL132018 10/06/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 48 47 44 43 43 38 35 33 36 36 39 40 42 44 41 44 V (KT) LAND 50 48 47 44 43 43 38 35 33 36 36 39 40 42 44 41 44 V (KT) LGEM 50 48 47 46 45 45 43 41 42 44 47 49 50 50 52 52 53 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 13 12 11 8 9 13 13 10 11 9 20 17 23 13 23 25 37 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 7 6 9 6 7 4 6 6 4 2 1 4 4 11 27 SHEAR DIR 333 355 26 48 7 346 312 334 249 234 247 264 242 243 225 216 234 SST (C) 25.7 26.0 25.6 24.8 24.3 23.9 24.3 24.5 24.5 25.1 25.4 25.4 25.8 25.7 25.0 25.2 24.6 POT. INT. (KT) 109 112 108 102 99 96 99 101 101 105 107 107 112 112 108 111 106 ADJ. POT. INT. 89 92 90 86 84 83 85 87 88 90 92 93 97 100 99 101 96 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.5 -54.6 -54.4 -54.7 -54.2 -54.1 -54.2 -54.3 -54.6 -55.8 -56.8 -56.5 -56.8 -56.4 -55.6 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) 1.4 0.9 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.3 0.8 0.0 0.5 0.4 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.3 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 5 4 3 3 3 2 3 3 2 3 4 3 2 700-500 MB RH 43 43 44 43 42 40 41 43 38 35 29 33 36 37 44 45 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 34 33 33 30 29 32 29 29 28 29 27 27 28 29 30 26 29 850 MB ENV VOR 65 53 58 43 32 31 2 36 41 65 38 19 -5 1 46 98 159 200 MB DIV -26 -25 0 -10 6 17 -35 -9 -11 -2 -10 -38 -7 1 14 59 95 700-850 TADV 2 3 10 10 8 12 5 7 -7 -5 -26 -13 -8 0 -13 -25 -59 LAND (KM) 1016 1018 1023 1066 1113 1168 1265 1397 1562 1741 1898 2034 2145 2266 1978 1656 1377 LAT (DEG N) 36.5 36.7 36.8 36.7 36.6 36.2 35.5 34.6 33.5 32.3 31.3 30.5 30.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 57.5 56.8 56.2 55.3 54.4 52.4 50.4 48.6 46.8 45.1 43.6 42.2 40.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 6 7 8 8 9 9 10 8 8 8 10 13 19 21 21 HEAT CONTENT 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 4 CX,CY: 2/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 636 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 5. 4. 2. 0. -1. -2. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -8. -10. -13. -13. -16. -16. -16. -15. -14. -17. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -6. -7. -7. -12. -15. -17. -14. -14. -11. -10. -8. -6. -9. -6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 36.5 57.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132018 LESLIE 10/06/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.53 2.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.6 25.9 to 2.2 0.65 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.6 0.0 to 147.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.6 33.3 to 3.1 0.62 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.70 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.6 to -2.7 0.48 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 409.0 814.0 to -65.0 0.46 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 38.1 30.0 to 128.0 0.08 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -11.0 -28.0 to 171.0 0.09 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 43.8 95.0 to 0.0 0.54 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.7% 11.9% 8.7% 7.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 1.9% 1.7% 0.6% 0.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 4.6% 3.5% 2.6% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132018 LESLIE 10/06/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132018 LESLIE 10/06/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 48 47 44 43 43 38 35 33 36 36 39 40 42 44 41 44 18HR AGO 50 49 48 45 44 44 39 36 34 37 37 40 41 43 45 42 45 12HR AGO 50 47 46 43 42 42 37 34 32 35 35 38 39 41 43 40 43 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 39 39 34 31 29 32 32 35 36 38 40 37 40 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT