* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL132018 10/05/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 54 53 52 50 48 46 42 40 38 42 45 44 46 47 47 47 V (KT) LAND 55 54 53 52 50 48 46 42 40 38 42 45 44 46 47 47 47 V (KT) LGEM 55 55 54 54 54 53 51 48 47 48 52 56 57 58 58 57 56 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 4 2 7 11 16 16 13 6 6 8 8 15 18 19 19 26 44 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 1 5 4 3 5 7 4 2 3 1 4 -1 6 -1 -1 7 SHEAR DIR 66 331 327 3 25 335 355 307 327 299 287 228 238 238 242 226 243 SST (C) 25.3 25.4 25.6 26.0 26.2 24.5 23.8 24.2 24.4 24.3 24.7 24.6 25.1 25.4 25.0 24.7 23.9 POT. INT. (KT) 106 106 107 111 114 100 96 99 100 100 102 101 106 109 107 106 100 ADJ. POT. INT. 89 87 88 91 94 85 83 85 87 87 88 88 92 95 96 94 89 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -54.5 -54.4 -54.4 -54.6 -54.8 -54.9 -54.3 -54.6 -55.0 -55.6 -55.2 -55.7 -55.4 -55.7 -55.0 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 1.3 1.4 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.8 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.6 0.5 1.0 0.7 0.7 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 4 4 4 4 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 2 1 700-500 MB RH 48 43 42 42 42 42 40 45 48 41 36 31 35 40 45 48 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 36 34 33 32 31 30 31 29 28 26 27 28 28 30 30 29 30 850 MB ENV VOR 91 75 65 60 57 43 21 0 21 33 58 29 7 -4 21 55 97 200 MB DIV 6 -6 -15 -12 -10 61 -5 -30 -3 -22 -10 -34 -25 -3 14 1 38 700-850 TADV 0 1 0 5 12 10 1 0 -4 -3 7 -2 0 5 -1 -23 -111 LAND (KM) 1031 1000 961 960 962 1053 1134 1226 1349 1522 1689 1860 1995 2096 2161 1941 1698 LAT (DEG N) 36.0 36.5 36.9 37.1 37.2 37.0 36.5 35.8 35.0 33.9 32.9 31.9 31.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 58.4 58.2 58.0 57.4 56.8 54.9 52.9 50.8 48.8 46.7 44.8 43.0 41.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 5 4 5 6 8 9 9 10 10 9 9 9 11 16 18 18 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 7 12 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 10 CX,CY: -2/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 660 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -15. -17. -19. -20. -21. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 8. 6. 5. 3. 2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -11. -14. -19. -19. -18. -18. -16. -15. -16. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -13. -15. -17. -13. -10. -11. -9. -8. -8. -8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 36.0 58.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132018 LESLIE 10/05/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 3.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.1 25.9 to 2.2 0.75 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.8 0.0 to 147.0 0.03 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.4 33.3 to 3.1 0.26 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.84 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.6 to -2.7 0.53 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 437.6 814.0 to -65.0 0.43 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 34.9 30.0 to 128.0 0.05 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -7.4 -28.0 to 171.0 0.10 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 39.5 95.0 to 0.0 0.58 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.8% 12.4% 9.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.9% 3.0% 2.5% 0.6% 0.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.4% 5.1% 3.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132018 LESLIE 10/05/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132018 LESLIE 10/05/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 54 53 52 50 48 46 42 40 38 42 45 44 46 47 47 47 18HR AGO 55 54 53 52 50 48 46 42 40 38 42 45 44 46 47 47 47 12HR AGO 55 52 51 50 48 46 44 40 38 36 40 43 42 44 45 45 45 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 43 41 39 35 33 31 35 38 37 39 40 40 40 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT