* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL132018 10/05/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 53 51 51 51 49 46 43 38 37 41 42 41 41 41 40 41 V (KT) LAND 55 53 51 51 51 49 46 43 38 37 41 42 41 41 41 40 41 V (KT) LGEM 55 52 51 51 52 53 53 51 47 47 50 52 52 51 50 49 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 6 2 4 2 5 13 12 11 11 3 10 15 23 17 25 27 46 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 -2 -4 5 4 5 9 4 4 5 8 8 7 2 3 3 -5 SHEAR DIR 193 323 360 290 288 33 336 354 310 326 228 244 247 259 244 251 252 SST (C) 25.0 25.2 25.3 25.4 25.9 26.1 24.9 24.5 24.4 24.5 24.4 24.7 25.0 24.9 25.4 25.6 25.3 POT. INT. (KT) 105 106 106 106 110 113 103 100 100 101 100 102 104 103 107 109 106 ADJ. POT. INT. 90 90 89 88 90 92 86 85 85 86 87 88 89 88 91 93 91 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.4 -54.5 -53.7 -53.9 -54.2 -53.9 -54.0 -53.6 -54.3 -54.0 -54.7 -55.4 -56.7 -56.3 -56.7 -56.7 200 MB VXT (C) 1.5 1.3 0.9 1.4 1.6 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 6 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 51 52 51 44 41 41 37 38 41 41 36 34 31 33 36 43 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 41 39 37 38 36 34 34 33 31 29 31 31 31 32 31 31 31 850 MB ENV VOR 96 88 86 78 74 61 50 40 16 37 50 73 56 41 16 52 -14 200 MB DIV -8 -6 18 11 -6 6 37 -5 -9 6 13 -18 -33 -16 0 13 -44 700-850 TADV 3 0 -2 3 2 12 20 9 3 8 -9 -10 -33 -16 -4 -7 -57 LAND (KM) 1225 1140 1056 1009 960 962 1043 1100 1176 1285 1431 1596 1751 1874 1980 2062 2150 LAT (DEG N) 34.4 35.2 36.0 36.5 37.0 37.3 37.1 36.8 36.2 35.5 34.6 33.6 32.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 57.5 57.7 57.9 57.8 57.6 56.5 54.9 53.2 51.3 49.3 47.3 45.4 43.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 7 5 4 6 7 8 8 9 10 9 7 7 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 3 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 12 CX,CY: 0/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 574 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -15. -17. -19. -20. -22. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 11. 11. 10. 7. 6. 4. 2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -3. -4. -8. -10. -13. -18. -21. -20. -21. -21. -20. -20. -20. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -4. -4. -6. -9. -12. -17. -18. -14. -13. -14. -14. -14. -15. -14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 34.4 57.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132018 LESLIE 10/05/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.47 2.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.8 25.9 to 2.2 0.93 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.6 0.0 to 147.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.2 33.3 to 3.1 0.57 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.84 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.6 to -2.7 0.37 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 388.6 814.0 to -65.0 0.48 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 34.3 30.0 to 128.0 0.04 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.8 -28.0 to 171.0 0.15 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 41.0 95.0 to 0.0 0.57 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.6% 13.1% 9.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 1.7% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 5.0% 3.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132018 LESLIE 10/05/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132018 LESLIE 10/05/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 53 51 51 51 49 46 43 38 37 41 42 41 41 41 40 41 18HR AGO 55 54 52 52 52 50 47 44 39 38 42 43 42 42 42 41 42 12HR AGO 55 52 51 51 51 49 46 43 38 37 41 42 41 41 41 40 41 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 45 43 40 37 32 31 35 36 35 35 35 34 35 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT