* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL132018 10/04/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 58 57 56 56 54 49 44 40 37 36 37 36 35 37 38 40 V (KT) LAND 60 58 57 56 56 54 49 44 40 37 36 37 36 35 37 38 40 V (KT) LGEM 60 57 56 55 55 55 55 53 49 48 49 52 52 52 51 51 52 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 9 3 6 4 12 15 12 6 9 10 15 12 15 14 19 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 -1 -6 -2 1 7 9 4 5 2 5 11 13 0 3 2 SHEAR DIR 181 159 154 54 47 9 359 360 323 324 275 289 238 262 228 225 201 SST (C) 25.3 25.1 25.3 25.3 25.2 25.6 25.5 24.5 24.2 24.4 24.6 25.0 24.8 25.4 25.1 25.0 25.1 POT. INT. (KT) 108 106 106 106 104 108 108 100 98 99 101 104 102 107 105 105 106 ADJ. POT. INT. 93 91 90 88 86 89 89 84 83 84 86 88 86 91 91 91 92 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -53.8 -53.9 -54.3 -54.2 -54.2 -54.0 -53.8 -53.6 -53.6 -53.4 -54.0 -54.5 -55.3 -55.7 -55.4 -55.4 200 MB VXT (C) 1.2 1.5 1.7 1.0 1.2 1.1 0.6 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 8 8 7 6 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 2 2 4 700-500 MB RH 50 49 50 48 44 41 40 41 41 46 44 39 34 35 42 46 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 43 43 41 39 38 35 34 34 32 31 31 31 31 31 32 32 33 850 MB ENV VOR 124 105 103 100 93 60 47 6 1 1 16 49 59 33 11 -3 55 200 MB DIV 49 -6 -4 19 5 -8 16 0 -18 10 -4 -17 -5 -9 -20 2 22 700-850 TADV 6 0 0 0 0 4 17 13 2 8 1 8 -6 -12 -9 4 -11 LAND (KM) 1384 1280 1177 1116 1055 1018 1071 1172 1234 1298 1397 1508 1610 1696 1771 1854 1955 LAT (DEG N) 32.8 33.8 34.7 35.3 35.9 36.5 36.4 36.0 35.6 35.1 34.4 33.7 33.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 57.4 57.6 57.9 58.0 58.1 57.4 56.0 54.4 52.8 51.3 49.7 48.0 46.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 8 6 5 5 6 7 7 7 8 7 6 6 9 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 10 CX,CY: 0/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 622 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -14. -16. -18. -20. -23. -25. -27. -28. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -3. -5. -8. -12. -15. -18. -21. -23. -24. -24. -24. -23. -22. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -4. -4. -6. -11. -16. -20. -23. -24. -23. -24. -25. -23. -22. -20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 32.8 57.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132018 LESLIE 10/04/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.47 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.9 25.9 to 2.2 0.80 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 147.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.3 33.3 to 3.1 0.60 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.98 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.6 to -2.7 0.58 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 410.2 814.0 to -65.0 0.46 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 29.7 30.0 to 128.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.6 -28.0 to 171.0 0.20 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 57.8 95.0 to 0.0 0.39 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.0% 13.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.7% 5.0% 4.9% 1.8% 0.4% 0.7% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 6.2% 1.6% 0.6% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132018 LESLIE 10/04/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132018 LESLIE 10/04/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 58 57 56 56 54 49 44 40 37 36 37 36 35 37 38 40 18HR AGO 60 59 58 57 57 55 50 45 41 38 37 38 37 36 38 39 41 12HR AGO 60 57 56 55 55 53 48 43 39 36 35 36 35 34 36 37 39 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 50 48 43 38 34 31 30 31 30 29 31 32 34 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT