* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL132018 10/04/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 64 63 62 61 60 55 51 43 40 37 34 34 32 32 34 38 V (KT) LAND 65 64 63 62 61 60 55 51 43 40 37 34 34 32 32 34 38 V (KT) LGEM 65 64 62 61 60 59 60 58 53 50 49 50 50 50 51 54 57 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 14 12 8 6 8 16 18 15 19 13 13 10 15 16 18 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 4 0 -5 -4 -2 7 7 8 -1 3 4 1 5 -5 -1 -3 SHEAR DIR 218 182 174 168 87 1 15 340 353 306 340 298 279 244 257 233 213 SST (C) 25.8 25.2 25.0 25.2 25.3 25.4 25.9 25.0 24.3 24.3 24.5 24.7 24.6 24.7 25.0 24.7 24.5 POT. INT. (KT) 112 107 105 106 106 105 111 103 98 98 100 102 100 101 104 102 101 ADJ. POT. INT. 96 93 90 90 88 87 91 86 83 84 85 86 85 87 89 88 87 200 MB T (C) -54.8 -53.5 -53.3 -53.6 -53.8 -54.0 -54.3 -53.6 -54.2 -53.2 -53.9 -53.8 -54.5 -54.8 -55.1 -54.6 -55.2 200 MB VXT (C) 1.2 1.1 2.1 2.0 1.1 1.3 0.8 1.6 0.7 1.0 1.1 0.8 0.3 0.4 0.5 1.2 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 8 8 6 6 6 6 4 5 3 4 4 5 3 700-500 MB RH 52 50 50 52 50 42 43 44 44 48 54 46 42 36 43 47 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 43 43 43 41 39 37 36 37 35 35 35 34 35 33 34 35 37 850 MB ENV VOR 131 126 108 104 105 84 58 24 -8 -21 18 26 62 42 25 4 63 200 MB DIV 72 45 -19 5 13 -14 2 30 -9 -1 -12 -8 -25 -34 -24 -6 51 700-850 TADV 9 9 4 0 -1 1 11 18 4 3 3 0 0 2 4 21 -2 LAND (KM) 1486 1374 1263 1175 1088 1019 1028 1100 1189 1236 1296 1382 1484 1600 1691 1764 1852 LAT (DEG N) 31.9 33.0 34.0 34.8 35.6 36.4 36.6 36.4 36.0 35.6 35.2 34.7 34.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 57.1 57.3 57.5 57.8 58.0 57.8 56.7 55.2 53.7 52.1 50.5 48.8 47.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 9 8 6 4 5 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 8 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 8 CX,CY: 0/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 650 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -10. -13. -17. -20. -23. -25. -28. -31. -33. -34. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -2. -3. -6. -9. -11. -15. -16. -17. -20. -19. -20. -19. -17. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -10. -14. -22. -25. -28. -31. -31. -33. -33. -31. -27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 31.9 57.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132018 LESLIE 10/04/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.53 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.8 25.9 to 2.2 0.64 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 147.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.7 33.3 to 3.1 0.48 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.93 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.6 to -2.7 0.60 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 415.8 814.0 to -65.0 0.45 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 26.4 30.0 to 128.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.2 -28.0 to 171.0 0.26 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 50.3 95.0 to 0.0 0.47 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.2% 12.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 3.4% 2.5% 0.7% 0.2% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.2% 5.3% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132018 LESLIE 10/04/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132018 LESLIE 10/04/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 0( 2) 0( 2) 0( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 64 63 62 61 60 55 51 43 40 37 34 34 32 32 34 38 18HR AGO 65 64 63 62 61 60 55 51 43 40 37 34 34 32 32 34 38 12HR AGO 65 62 61 60 59 58 53 49 41 38 35 32 32 30 30 32 36 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 54 53 48 44 36 33 30 27 27 25 25 27 31 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT