* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL132018 10/04/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 72 73 75 75 74 71 65 60 53 53 49 44 41 40 42 44 V (KT) LAND 70 72 73 75 75 74 71 65 60 53 53 49 44 41 40 42 44 V (KT) LGEM 70 72 74 74 73 69 65 64 61 58 58 57 55 52 51 52 53 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 8 19 19 14 4 2 13 11 8 14 12 18 14 18 18 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 -1 -5 2 0 -5 2 3 2 4 -2 2 8 2 2 -1 6 SHEAR DIR 222 235 223 191 189 119 58 36 360 345 292 300 288 275 242 210 215 SST (C) 26.7 26.6 26.2 25.7 25.6 25.4 25.7 26.0 25.4 24.8 24.3 24.2 24.0 23.8 24.2 24.5 23.9 POT. INT. (KT) 119 119 115 111 109 107 108 111 106 102 99 99 98 96 98 100 97 ADJ. POT. INT. 100 101 99 95 93 89 88 90 87 85 84 84 84 83 85 86 84 200 MB T (C) -55.0 -54.7 -54.6 -53.6 -53.4 -53.9 -53.9 -54.1 -53.5 -53.8 -53.3 -54.0 -54.4 -55.3 -55.2 -55.2 -55.3 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 1.1 1.4 1.3 2.0 1.1 1.3 1.1 1.7 1.2 1.3 1.2 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 9 9 8 8 6 5 5 4 2 3 2 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 45 51 54 54 53 51 40 41 41 46 50 53 46 44 42 49 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 40 41 41 44 43 40 37 35 34 32 34 34 33 32 31 33 35 850 MB ENV VOR 130 130 129 127 107 103 83 61 21 -4 -26 0 17 40 37 41 102 200 MB DIV 37 45 61 61 -17 25 -5 -7 30 3 15 -8 -5 -10 -8 25 43 700-850 TADV 3 3 8 7 3 0 0 4 15 -2 9 5 3 -2 -3 -2 -12 LAND (KM) 1596 1567 1486 1388 1292 1132 1042 1017 1031 1098 1123 1174 1284 1424 1544 1633 1740 LAT (DEG N) 30.3 31.1 31.9 32.9 33.8 35.4 36.3 36.7 36.9 36.8 36.6 36.3 35.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 57.0 57.1 57.1 57.2 57.3 57.5 57.3 56.7 55.7 54.3 52.6 50.6 48.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 8 9 10 9 6 3 4 5 6 8 9 9 9 8 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 15 6 1 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 649 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -10. -15. -19. -23. -26. -29. -32. -36. -38. -39. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -0. -1. -1. 1. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 8. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 1. -2. -5. -9. -11. -16. -14. -14. -17. -19. -19. -16. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 5. 4. 1. -5. -10. -17. -17. -21. -26. -29. -30. -28. -26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 30.3 57.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132018 LESLIE 10/04/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.7 25.9 to 2.2 0.51 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.4 0.0 to 147.0 0.03 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.1 33.3 to 3.1 0.64 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.85 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.6 to -2.7 0.57 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 442.0 814.0 to -65.0 0.42 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 27.7 30.0 to 128.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.4 -28.0 to 171.0 0.33 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 55.0 95.0 to 0.0 0.42 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.9% 13.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.7% 2.8% 1.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.2% 5.5% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132018 LESLIE 10/04/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132018 LESLIE 10/04/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 4( 8) 5( 12) 5( 17) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 72 73 75 75 74 71 65 60 53 53 49 44 41 40 42 44 18HR AGO 70 69 70 72 72 71 68 62 57 50 50 46 41 38 37 39 41 12HR AGO 70 67 66 68 68 67 64 58 53 46 46 42 37 34 33 35 37 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 60 59 56 50 45 38 38 34 29 26 25 27 29 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT