* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL132018 10/03/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 74 78 80 83 86 84 78 72 65 59 53 52 47 46 47 48 V (KT) LAND 70 74 78 80 83 86 84 78 72 65 59 53 52 47 46 47 48 V (KT) LGEM 70 75 78 82 84 80 72 68 66 63 60 58 57 55 54 55 55 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 10 11 9 9 15 13 1 4 11 11 11 13 11 6 5 16 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -1 3 0 -2 0 -2 0 1 0 3 -3 1 12 11 12 6 SHEAR DIR 190 213 211 206 212 177 32 333 30 351 354 309 312 269 241 228 238 SST (C) 26.8 26.7 26.7 26.6 26.3 25.5 25.3 25.7 25.5 24.8 24.4 24.0 24.2 24.1 23.9 24.3 23.9 POT. INT. (KT) 117 117 119 119 116 109 106 109 107 102 99 97 99 98 97 100 97 ADJ. POT. INT. 97 98 100 102 100 93 89 89 88 85 83 82 85 85 84 86 84 200 MB T (C) -55.7 -54.9 -54.3 -54.3 -54.3 -53.1 -53.8 -53.7 -54.4 -53.8 -54.4 -53.5 -54.4 -54.7 -55.4 -55.3 -55.7 200 MB VXT (C) 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.3 2.0 0.9 1.5 0.8 1.6 0.9 1.1 0.7 0.5 -0.2 0.3 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 11 10 10 9 8 8 6 5 5 6 4 3 2 2 1 700-500 MB RH 43 43 45 51 53 53 52 44 44 48 48 48 49 36 35 36 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 37 38 40 40 41 44 40 37 36 35 34 34 36 34 32 32 32 850 MB ENV VOR 140 131 135 133 129 115 108 80 47 16 -16 -30 16 48 85 93 108 200 MB DIV 25 34 30 33 69 -1 29 -4 -5 32 -4 24 -12 -20 -21 -5 24 700-850 TADV 0 0 2 2 7 2 1 -1 2 9 6 8 6 15 22 0 -27 LAND (KM) 1538 1561 1585 1592 1510 1320 1156 1059 1038 1094 1100 1111 1181 1303 1446 1600 1760 LAT (DEG N) 29.5 29.8 30.1 30.9 31.7 33.6 35.3 36.3 36.8 36.8 36.8 36.8 36.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 56.8 56.8 56.9 57.0 57.0 57.1 57.0 56.7 55.8 54.4 52.8 51.2 49.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 1 3 6 8 9 9 7 5 5 6 6 8 9 10 10 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 14 15 16 9 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 595 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 16.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -3. -6. -9. -14. -18. -22. -25. -28. -32. -35. -37. -39. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 3. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 9. 10. 10. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -9. -12. -14. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 10. 13. 16. 14. 8. 2. -5. -11. -17. -18. -23. -24. -23. -22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 29.5 56.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132018 LESLIE 10/03/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.73 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.8 25.9 to 2.2 0.64 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.0 0.0 to 147.0 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.5 33.3 to 3.1 0.66 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.85 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.6 to -2.7 0.44 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 489.8 814.0 to -65.0 0.37 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 29.3 30.0 to 128.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.2 -28.0 to 171.0 0.33 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 37.5 95.0 to 0.0 0.61 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.2% 16.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.3% 5.9% 3.4% 0.8% 0.2% 0.9% 1.2% 0.2% Bayesian: 7.9% 1.4% 0.9% 0.9% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 7.4% 8.0% 1.4% 0.6% 0.1% 0.3% 0.4% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132018 LESLIE 10/03/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132018 LESLIE 10/03/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 6( 10) 9( 18) 10( 26) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 74 78 80 83 86 84 78 72 65 59 53 52 47 46 47 48 18HR AGO 70 69 73 75 78 81 79 73 67 60 54 48 47 42 41 42 43 12HR AGO 70 67 66 68 71 74 72 66 60 53 47 41 40 35 34 35 36 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 63 66 64 58 52 45 39 33 32 27 26 27 28 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT